033
FXUS62 KMLB 210520
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1220 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
- COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS EC FL FORECAST TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FAR NW AND LOWEST WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 30
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, IMPROVING
THIS WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH SURFACE WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN TONIGHT ARE TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, AS
COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S, COMBINING WITH WINDS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS SOUTH OF I-4 ARE
EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE 40S, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SOME SPOTS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR THEIR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO CHANGES
MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
TONIGHT...COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL FL
AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1045MB) OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A N/NW BREEZE ALL NIGHT OF 8-14
MPH, AND GUSTY AT TIMES. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE FAR NW PORTION OF OUR FA (NW VOLUSIA/N LAKE) WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL PRODUCE COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER
20S/AROUND 30 ACROSS FAR NW LAKE COUNTY WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS IN THE 30S ACROSS VOLUSIA AND THE INTERIOR DOWN TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OUR CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW 30. ONLY THE FAR NW CORNER OF LAKE COUNTY (LADY
LAKE) REACHED THIS CRITERIA AND ONLY BRIEFLY, AROUND SUNRISE.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DIFFERENT CRITERIA.
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BRING SOME
MARINE STRATOCU ONTO THE COAST TOWARD MORNING AND THIS SHOULD
KEEP COASTAL TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, HOLDING IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COAST AND LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH WINDS VEERING
SLIGHTLY, OUT OF THE N/NE WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU PUSHING
ONSHORE. SOME OF THIS STRATOCU WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MAX TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S
IN VOLUSIA COUNTY AND WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL RECORD COOL
MAX AT DAYTONA (57 IN 2020). ELSEWHERE, MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S, SOME
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
WEEKEND (MODIFIED)...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT ON SATURDAY
WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEPICTED IN ALL
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS, MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, WEAK AND UNORGANIZED
MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSES FL AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
PENINSULA. IN FACT, A WEAK TROUGH OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TAKE
SHAPE INTO LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR
NOW, KEPT SAT DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED ON THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, DESPITE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY WILL
ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXCEPT COASTAL
VOLUSIA HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED)...SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO
MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST, BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STEADY RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST,
NOTABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PATTERN STAYS MODESTLY ACTIVE
WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF OR ACCOMPANYING FAST-MOVING
TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, WILL BE TIED TO THE FORMATION OF
AND LOCATION OF A POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AND THESE CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40
PERCENT. THE FRONT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOK
DRY. THE WARMEST DAY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. OVERALL, WE
CAN EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY TIME WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER CHANCES MIXED IN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
RAIN CHANCE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO N/NE WINDS 16-22 KNOTS BUILD SEAS UP TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM, 5-7 FEET NEARSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 15 KNOTS/6 FEET. A WEAK FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD IN TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A FEW PATCHES OF TEMPO CIGS BKN030-035
OUT THERE OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BECOMING NE TOMORROW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND STILL SOME HIGHER GUSTS. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 58 48 68 52 / 10 10 20 20
MCO 62 49 70 55 / 0 10 10 10
MLB 65 55 70 56 / 10 20 20 20
VRB 68 56 72 57 / 20 20 20 20
LEE 60 45 70 51 / 0 10 10 10
SFB 61 48 70 53 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 61 49 70 54 / 0 10 10 10
FPR 68 56 72 56 / 20 20 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ555-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ572-575.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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