212
FXUS62 KMLB 221121
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
621 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
- WARMER TODAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, WINDS VEER ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON
- BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHILE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSES SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA, THEN DRIER MID TO LATE
WEEK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 3 AM, LEESBURG WAS 42 DEGREES WHILE
FORT PIERCE AND STUART HELD AT 64 DEGREES. ONSHORE FLOW IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY TRENDING UPWARD BY
DAYBREAK. INTERMITTENT CLOUDS REMAIN AT THE COAST WITH CLEAR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE INTERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND
THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, THANKS TO AN
INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST (UPPER
60S ON THE VOLUSIA COAST) WILL COME IN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES FALL FROM SUNSET ONWARD
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
IF YOU ARE HEADING TO THE BEACH TODAY, BE AWARE OF A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. ENTERING THE WATER IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE
DAY ON SUNDAY, SUPPORTED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH A LESSER AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
CLOUD COVER MAKES A COMEBACK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
APPROACHES FLORIDA.
THE 500MB PATTERN REFLECTS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS AL/GA MONDAY MORNING, TRAILED BY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. IN TERMS OF QPF, RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED A BIT IN
RECENT FORECAST CYCLES, NOTABLY FROM MELBOURNE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND THE TREASURE COAST. THIS IS WHERE A MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
PAINTS AN AREA OF 1-2" OF RAIN ON MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW BROAD OF AN AXIS THIS AREA OF 1-2" WILL BE AND
JUST HOW FAR NORTH IT EXTENDS. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 1" OR MORE OF
72-HOUR RAINFALL (ENDING WED. MORNING) ARE NEAR 30% FROM
MELBOURNE TO KISSIMMEE PRAIRIE AND AS HIGH AS 50%-60% FROM FORT
PIERCE TO JUPITER. THAT SAID, THERE ARE NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF MELBOURNE. FOR EXAMPLE, THE GEFS SUGGESTS UNDER
0.5" OF TOTAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR ORLANDO WHILE THE EPS MEAN
LIES BETWEEN 0.75" AND 1.00" OF RAIN. IN SHORT, THE TRACK AND
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLOSELY INFLUENCE HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.
ADDITIONALLY, AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY, MAINLY FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE IMPACTED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL.
MANY LOCATIONS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK FROM
ORLANDO NORTHWARD, WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S FORECAST SOUTH OF
THERE.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...WE SHIFT TO A DRIER PATTERN FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD
WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR LAKE O AND THE TREASURE COAST ON
TUESDAY AND A 10-15 PERCENT (OR LESS) CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE
FROPA ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING A LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ARRIVAL, WHILE OTHERS ARE TRENDING TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY.
LIGHTER WINDS ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, VEERING NORTHWEST AND
BECOMING BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S (FAR NORTH
LAKE/VOLUSIA) TO THE MID/UPPER 50S EVERYWHERE ELSE. POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT, DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
PREVIEWING NEXT WEEKEND AND THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF MARCH,
PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE IMPROVING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THERE. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
ONSHORE WINDS TODAY AROUND 10-15 KT TURN NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, VEERING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. NNW WINDS 10-15 KT OR LESS
CONTINUE THRU MIDWEEK. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY (UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF
STREAM SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET), BECOMING 2-4 FT THRU WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, THOUGH WILL STAY GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST. ENE-ESE 5-10 KTS WINDS WITH MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONTO
THE COAST. BKN CIGS AT TIMES 030-050, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLD LIGHT SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 50 68 52 / 10 0 0 30
MCO 71 53 73 55 / 10 0 0 30
MLB 70 55 72 57 / 10 10 0 30
VRB 73 56 74 58 / 10 10 0 30
LEE 70 49 71 53 / 0 0 0 30
SFB 71 51 72 54 / 10 0 0 30
ORL 71 53 73 55 / 10 0 0 30
FPR 72 54 74 57 / 10 10 0 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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