183
FXUS62 KMLB 251856
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
256 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
- A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE AND SEBASTIAN
SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST
- LARGE HAIL, STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND EVEN A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MID EVENING
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK, LIKELY TO WORSEN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS, FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE NOTED ON GOES IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS, UNCOVERING A
BUILDING LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S, LARGELY ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FIRST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REMAINING NEAR AND SOUTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE/SEBASTIAN, THOUGH A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KISSIMMEE/MELBOURNE.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES 2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, COLOCATED WITH 7 DEGC/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, -13C TO -14C 500MB TEMPS, AND LARGE SCALE
DIFFLUENCE. IN SUMMARY, THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRD OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS,
SOME BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN
THE EVENING. WHILE BULK SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WATER-
LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS (60-65+ MPH). LARGE HAIL IS ANOTHER PRIMARY HAZARD OF
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HAIL EVENT FROM THIS MORNING
NEAR FORT PIERCE. AS SEA BREEZE AND STORM-SCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS OCCUR, A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE 0-500M SRH
IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE
AFTER 9 PM AND BE ON A DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...A REINFORCING FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WITH SKIES
FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND, WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST ON THURSDAY. A
BIT BREEZIER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S., RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LOCALLY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S, COOLING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ON THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY-MONDAY (PREVIOUS)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY POTENTIALLY APPROACH FLORIDA, WITH MODEL
ENSEMBLES CONTINUING TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING AND COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK WITH THE NBM AS A GOOD IN
BETWEEN OPTION FOR NOW, WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AND STAYING AROUND 20 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ANTICIPATE
TIMING TO BECOME CLEARER THROUGH THIS WEEK AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT. WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY, WITH LOCALLY BACKED WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST, THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND FINALLY THE LOW TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KT OR GREATER, HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS FRESHEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25+
KT (ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE). SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUILDING
UP TO 5-6 FT INTERMITTENTLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
LIGHT NW/N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING TO VEER ONSHORE AT
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS TREND SPREADING INLAND. SCT-
NMRS SHOWERS ISOLD-SCT LIGHTNING STORMS LATE AFTN/EVENING,
HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF KMLB. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS/SMALL TO COIN-SIZE HAIL. TEMPOS IN PLACE. WINDS,
AGAIN, LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN AND IS FORECAST, FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE
TO CONSIDER PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING AT SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...ALONG AND BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT, DRIER AIR
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK.
SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH DRYING FUELS AND A RECENT LACK
OF RAINFALL, SENSITIVE FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 58 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 85 59 82 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 61 80 62 79 / 20 0 0 0
VRB 61 80 62 79 / 50 0 0 0
LEE 59 85 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 59 84 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 62 85 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 60 81 61 79 / 60 10 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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