433
FXUS62 KMLB 260533
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
133 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
- A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE AND SEBASTIAN
SOUTHWARD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST
- LARGE HAIL, STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND EVEN A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MID EVENING
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK, LIKELY TO WORSEN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
STORMS WINDING DOWN OVER OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. MARTIN COUNTY RECEIVED
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WITH SEVERAL NARROW STRIPES OF 3-4
INCHES BASED ON RADAR, MOSTLY IN WESTERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA AND LOW TO MID 60S
COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL BUT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...A REINFORCING FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WITH SKIES
FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND, WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST ON THURSDAY. A
BIT BREEZIER ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S., RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LOCALLY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S, COOLING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ON THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY-MONDAY (PREVIOUS)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY POTENTIALLY APPROACH FLORIDA, WITH MODEL
ENSEMBLES CONTINUING TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING AND COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK WITH THE NBM AS A GOOD IN
BETWEEN OPTION FOR NOW, WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AND STAYING AROUND 20 PERCENT ON MONDAY. ANTICIPATE
TIMING TO BECOME CLEARER THROUGH THIS WEEK AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT. WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY, WITH LOCALLY BACKED WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST, THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND FINALLY THE LOW TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KT OR GREATER, HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE MOVING OFFSHORE.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS FRESHEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25+
KT (ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE). SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUILDING
UP TO 5-6 FT INTERMITTENTLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. NORTHERLY WINDS AFTER SUNRISE (13Z)
WILL VEER ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON (~17Z), AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS, INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST, THEN SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS,
THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 18-20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THEN RETURN AROUND
0Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...ALONG AND BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT, DRIER AIR
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK.
SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH DRYING FUELS AND A RECENT LACK
OF RAINFALL, SENSITIVE FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 56 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 84 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 61 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 80 61 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 85 57 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 83 57 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 84 60 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 81 60 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...KELLY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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