899
FXUS62 KMLB 261721
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
121 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
- A REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SENSITIVE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A RESULT OF LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES, BREEZY
WINDS, AND THE CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
WITH INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FORECAST. SUNDAY HAS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, ALREADY
EVIDENCED BY THE 1" PW FROM THIS MORNING'S 10Z XMR SOUNDING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S BUT ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. AN EARLY-DEVELOPING ATLANTIC COAST BREEZE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH A STEADY BREEZE BEHIND IT,
COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THIS UPDATE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...A REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELED PWATS INDICATE VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE
0.75-0.9" RANGE LOCALLY, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
30 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH THIS MORNING VEER TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE LEADING TO A MORE ONSHORE SHIFT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWS OVERNIGHT FALL INTO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S., KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY LOCALLY. WINDS VEER
ONSHORE ON THURSDAY, BECOMING BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MASS
IN PLACE. A TOUCH COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT CLOSER
TO NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE
EAST COAST, WITH WINDS VEERING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LOCALLY
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. MOISTURE ADVECTS TOWARDS THE AREA, WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT. HIGHS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...BY THIS WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS MORE EASTWARD OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS SITUATED NORTH OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING ALONG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY AND DECAYS
INTO MONDAY, WITH A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS A RESULT OF THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON SUNDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE AND TIMING,
HENCE THE INCREASE IN POPS. THINGS BECOME A BIT LESS CLEAR INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWER AND EVEN STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY VEER SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AND WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK
TO OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH COVERAGE GENERALLY IMPROVING MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT AND RAIN
CHANCES FALLING TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. NORTHWEST WINDS VEER TO
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH GENERALLY
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN LOCALLY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY, VEERING TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. SEAS RESPOND BY GRADUALLY BUILDING, WITH HEIGHTS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET ON THURSDAY AND 4 TO 6 FEET ON FRIDAY. CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY, VEERING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. SEAS RESPOND
BY SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND,
WITH INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FORECAST. HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS. NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING ONSHORE (8-12 KTS)
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS INLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU
MORNING, ESP ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR - THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS CAN UPDATE IF APPLICABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR FALLING TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS FLIRTING
WITH CRITICAL VALUES AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT DID NOT
RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH DRY FUELS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING COULD LEAD TO SOME CONTINUED
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 77 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 59 82 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 61 78 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 61 79 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 57 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 57 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 60 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 60 79 61 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHAPER
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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