414
FXUS62 KMLB 261918
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
318 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AN INCREASING
ONSHORE WIND, AND DRY FUELS
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHEN AND
SEAS BUILD, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL
- INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, DEEPER
MOISTURE PROVIDES HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...DRY AIR IS SQUARELY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVIDENCED BY SUB-1" PW ON GOES-DERIVED IMAGERY AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 60S. A WEAK
FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR A BETTER PORTION OF THE AREA, THOUGH
COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL PROMOTE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
ONSHORE. BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY
FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RETREAT
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AS A FEW MORE CLOUDS BUILD OVERHEAD
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, TOO, GIVING WAY TO GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST). SIMILAR TEMPS ARE
FORECAST: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS)...BY THIS WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED NORTH OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING ALONG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY AND DECAYS
INTO MONDAY, WITH A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS A RESULT OF THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON SUNDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING, HENCE THE INCREASE IN POPS. THINGS BECOME A BIT LESS CLEAR
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COULD
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWER AND EVEN STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY VEER SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH COVERAGE GENERALLY IMPROVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHERE SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS REACH THE UPPER 80S. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK, ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO VEER EASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND EAST-SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. WINDS FRESHEN ON FRIDAY, GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS 2-4 FT THURSDAY
BUILD UP TO 6 FT FRIDAY (UP TO 7 FT WELL OFFSHORE), FALLING AS WINDS
DECREASE TO 3-5 FT THIS WEEKEND (UP TO 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE). RAIN AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES RETURN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LINGERING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS. NORTHERLY WINDS VEERING ONSHORE (8-12 KTS)
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS INLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU
MORNING, ESP ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR - THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS CAN UPDATE IF APPLICABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SINK INTO
THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE
WEEK. AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST, SENSITIVE FIRE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURN, THOUGH DRY FUELS AND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
COULD LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 59 83 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 63 78 64 77 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 62 78 63 78 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 57 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 57 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 60 83 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 62 79 62 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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