610
FXUS62 KMLB 270556
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
156 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AN INCREASING
ONSHORE WIND, AND DRY FUELS
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHEN AND
SEAS BUILD, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL
- INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, DEEPER
MOISTURE PROVIDES HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 9:00 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
A STRAY LIGHTING STORM HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE MARTIN COUNTY THIS
EVENING ALONG A WEAK LINE OF CONVERGENCE AND AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRUSH
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEAKENING INTO LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES.
SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE WEAKEST. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION TO THE FORECAST
FOR PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA/BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LINGERING
SMOKE FROM ANY ONGOING OR SMOLDERING BRUSH FIRES WILL ALSO LEAD TO
VISIBILITY CONCERNS ALONG ANY NEARBY ROADWAYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND
VOLUSIA COAST, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...DRY AIR IS SQUARELY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON, EVIDENCED BY SUB-1" PW ON GOES-DERIVED IMAGERY AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 60S. A WEAK
FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR A BETTER PORTION OF THE AREA, THOUGH
COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL PROMOTE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
ONSHORE. BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY
FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RETREAT
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AS A FEW MORE CLOUDS BUILD OVERHEAD
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS, TOO, GIVING WAY TO GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST). SIMILAR TEMPS ARE
FORECAST: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS)...BY THIS WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED NORTH OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING ALONG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY AND DECAYS
INTO MONDAY, WITH A REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS A RESULT OF THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON SUNDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING, HENCE THE INCREASE IN POPS. THINGS BECOME A BIT LESS CLEAR
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COULD
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWER AND EVEN STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY VEER SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH COVERAGE GENERALLY IMPROVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHERE SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS REACH THE UPPER 80S. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK, ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO VEER EASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND EAST-SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. WINDS FRESHEN ON FRIDAY, GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS 2-4 FT THURSDAY
BUILD UP TO 6 FT FRIDAY (UP TO 7 FT WELL OFFSHORE), FALLING AS WINDS
DECREASE TO 3-5 FT THIS WEEKEND (UP TO 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE). RAIN AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES RETURN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LINGERING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY IS
BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR/IFR TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY
AT VRB/FPR. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR 2SM THROUGH 08/09Z AND WILL
MONITOR FOR FUTURE AMENDMENTS. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 AFTER 08Z. SO HAVE
KEPT BCFG AT KMCO, KISM, KLEE, AND KSFB, AND MVFR-IFR VIS AT KDAB.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS FORECAST TO LIFT BETWEEN 12-13Z, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AFTER 13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8KT BY MID-MORNING
BEFORE TURNING ENE AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT (WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST) IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND. WINDS WILL DECREASE
IN THE EVENING, WITH ONSHORE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, AND 5-10 KT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SINK INTO
THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE
WEEK. AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST, SENSITIVE FIRE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURN, THOUGH DRY FUELS AND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
COULD LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 62 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 83 61 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 79 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 79 63 78 65 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 83 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 82 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 83 62 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 80 63 78 65 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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