738
FXUS62 KMLB 271326
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
926 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
- SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND, AND DRY FUELS.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHEN AND SEAS BUILD,
MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
- INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, DEEPER
MOISTURE PROVIDES HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STREAMING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND RAP
MSLP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AXIS, EXTENDING
FROM THE TREASURE COAST TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. A
SMALL BUT PERSISTENT SHOWER HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE LAYER AND IS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR FORT PIERCE NOW.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST PAST THE 10 AM HOUR,
AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN ACCUMULATION ALONG THAT
PORTION OF THE COAST.
THE MAJORITY OF TODAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 70S (COAST) TO MID 80S (INTERIOR). MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS WERE PROVIDED IN THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
TODAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE THIS WEEK, EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONSHORE FLOW TODAY
AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY, THEN INCREASINGLY
SO TOMORROW, AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. WINDS 10-15 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME 15-20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH
DRY AIR AN NO PRECIPITATION, WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SENSITIVE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS). ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO MODERATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER 80S INLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S, WITH UPPER 50S IN NORMALLY COOLER,
INLAND SPOTS.
THIS WEEKEND...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
THIS WEEKEND, VEERING WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY LOCALLY. INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO 1.25-1.5" BY THE AFTERNOON. A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO. POPS 20-25% INCREASING TO 30-40% AREA-
WIDE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS
1.3-1.6") AND A PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST POPS OUR AREA HAS SEEN IN SOME
TIME. HAVE CAPPED POPS AROUND 60% DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN
THE MODELS ABOUT WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE,
THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. REGARDLESS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHWARD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, BREEZY AT TIMES, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-80S INLAND. ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE STALLING AS IT
MOVES INTO FLORIDA, THOUGH DISAGREE ON EXACTLY WHERE (GFS BEING
THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION). NONETHELESS, THE FRONT IS NOT
FORECAST TO CLEAR SOUTHWARD OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME, WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AMID
LINGERING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS LINGER IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEAS 4-6FT, WITH UP TO 7FT WELL OFFSHORE FROM AROUND
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE CAPE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LATE
TONIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY, WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND
REMAIN UP TO 15-20KTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DECREASING TO
10-15KTS SUNDAY. SEAS 4-6FT PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND SEAS DIMINISH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
MVFR/IFR VIS THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS, AS
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THESE CIGS
THROUGH 13Z FOR VRB-SUA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8KT BY MID-MORNING BEFORE TURNING ENE
AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT (WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES
ALONG THE COAST) IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING, WITH
ONSHORE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND 5-10 KT
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TURNING SE AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
VERY SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER TODAY, WITH NEAR-RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL LEAD
TO MIN RH BETWEEN 30-40% WEST OF I-95, WHILE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 40-50%. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW CRITERIA (10-14 MPH) OVER THE INTERIOR, THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS PEAK, WHILE MIN RH IS AT ITS
LOWEST, CREATING THE NEAR-RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
ARE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MIN RH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR LINGER OVER THE PENINSULA FRIDAY, WITH
MIN RH 35-45% INLAND AND 45-55% ALONG THE COAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SENSITIVE, AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND, AS HIGHER MOISTURE (AND
PRECIPITATION) MOVES INTO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 62 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 83 61 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 78 64 78 66 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 78 63 78 65 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 83 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 82 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 83 62 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 79 63 78 65 / 20 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ575.
UPDATE...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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