176
FXUS62 KMLB 280129
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
929 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
- SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY DUE TO
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND, AND DRY FUELS
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHEN AND SEAS BUILD, MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL
- WEATHER PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND,
DEEPER MOISTURE PROVIDES HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO TONIGHT, WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT. 925MB EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-30
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE MIXING OVERNIGHT
AND REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, ANY LINGERING SMOKE FROM ONGOING OR SMOLDERING
BRUSH FIRES MAY STILL BE ABLE TO SETTLE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS AT THE SURFACE DECREASE. TWO AREAS OF
CONCERN WHERE PATCHY SMOKE AND LOCALIZED VISIBILITY ISSUES MAY
OCCUR ARE ACROSS I-95 NEAR PALM CITY IN MARTIN COUNTY WHERE A
WILDFIRE BROKE OUT EARLIER TODAY, AND NEAR CR-42 IN NORTHEAST
LAKE COUNTY CLOSE TO THE FERNANDEZ WILDFIRE IN THE OCALA NATIONAL
FOREST.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BARRIER ISLANDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THE
ELEVATED ONSHORE WIND SPEEDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPE, AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...A PLEASANT DAY WEATHERWISE IS ONGOING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE PRESENT ATOP NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW,
WHICH IS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. SENSITIVE
FIRE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SEVERAL SMOKE PLUMES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ON KMLB RADAR. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.
WORTH MENTIONING, WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS, SOME SETTLING SMOKE FROM RECENT FIRES MAY LOWER
VISIBILITY ON AREA ROADWAYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE FRIDAY,
HELPING TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO ROUND OUT THE WORK
WEEK. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH (20 MPH AT THE COAST)
WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 MPH. FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY (SEE BELOW FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
DETAILS). DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY FEEL SLIGHTLY LESS WARM DUE TO
THE STEADY ONSHORE BREEZE WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE SEAWARD ON SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS AID IN MOISTURE RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH OR BRUSH THE
COAST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
BY MIDDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES (20-30 PERCENT)
RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PRIMARY FOCUS FROM
LAKE KISSIMMEE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST.
SUNDAY (PREVIOUS)...DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.3-1.6") AND A
PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE TO PRODUCE
THE HIGHEST POPS OUR AREA HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AROUND 60% DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ABOUT WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE, THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. REGARDLESS, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT
FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, BREEZY AT TIMES, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-80S INLAND. ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY-THURSDAY (PREVIOUS)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE STALLING
AS IT MOVES INTO FLORIDA, THOUGH NOT EXACTLY ON WHERE (GFS BEING
THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION). NONETHELESS, THE FRONT IS NOT
FORECAST TO REACH THE CWA AT THIS TIME, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AMID LINGERING MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHEN, ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. SEAS CLIMB TO 5-7 FT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GULF STREAM, BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS TONIGHT FOR THE TREASURE
COAST WATERS, EXPANDING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE LOCAL WATERS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT
WEEK (OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT BREEZY-WINDY
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL MAKE FOR LESS THAN IDEAL FLYING
WEATHER. ENE-E WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EASE TO 5-10
KTS OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE NNE-NE UP NORTH. FRIDAY MORNING
WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-ESE AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS INLAND, AND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST BY AROUND 14Z, AND MAINTAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
FRIDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S, COMBINED WITH INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DRY FUELS,
WILL LEAD TO SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOST
NOTABLY, THE LOWEST HUMIDITY AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE FAR INTERIOR (MAINLY WEST OF THE ORLANDO METRO).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 78 64 80 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 61 80 64 83 / 0 0 0 20
MLB 66 78 67 80 / 0 0 20 20
VRB 63 78 66 80 / 0 0 20 20
LEE 60 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 20
SFB 60 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 61 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 20
FPR 64 78 65 81 / 0 0 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ575.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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