924
FXUS62 KMLB 281304
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
904 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS ALL
EC FL; PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR LAKE COUNTY WHERE LOWEST HUMIDITY
AND DRIEST FUELS OVERLAP BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHEN AND SEAS BUILD
- MOISTURE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HOP INTO APRIL
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL
CENTERED OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH
ASSOCIATED EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF ECFL. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A DEEP LOW-LEVEL ESE FLOW WITH A TIGHTENING PGRAD ALLOWING
FOR BREEZY (15-20 MPH) WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THIS
WILL ENHANCE FIRE SENSITIVITY (MODERATE TO HIGH) ACROSS THE AREA,
ESP FOR ONGOING OR ANY NEW BRUSHFIRES. CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY WITH
PWATS UNDER ONE INCH, THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A
SLIGHT TICK UPWARD IN MOISTURE AND SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE. IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE A FEW "LOW-TOPPED" SHOWERS FIND THEIR WAY ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW.
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY, BUT STILL SEASONALLY WARM WITH DEEP
ONSHORE FLOW AS MAX HIGHS WILL REALIZE U70S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR
80F TO L80S INTO THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT MINS MILD AND GENERALLY IN
THE L-M60S WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT REMAINING
ELEVATED 10-15 MPH (FEW HIGHER GUSTS) ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TODAY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE HELPING TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. BUT A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
FAIRLY STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY/GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING
NEAR 30 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER (SEE
BELOW FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS). DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY
FEEL SLIGHTLY LESS WARM DUE TO THE STEADY ONSHORE BREEZE WITH
UPPER 70S COAST AND LOWER 80S INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO
THE 60S AREAWIDE, HOLDING NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SAT...RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE SEAWARD ON SATURDAY
AS SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS AID IN MOISTURE RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH OR
BRUSH THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES (20-30
PERCENT) RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PRIMARY
FOCUS FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE
COAST, LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST.
SUNDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1.5") AND A PASSING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE
HIGHEST POPS OUR AREA HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
70% DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ABOUT WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. REGARDLESS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
APPEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS. IN THE LOW LEVELS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SEA BREEZE
COLLISION. BUT SUPPORT ALOFT WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS (WIND
GUSTS/HAIL) DUE TO DRY AIR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-10 TO -11 C). IF
THESE TRENDS PERSIST, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MRGL SEVERE
RISK INTRODUCED BY SPC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, BREEZY AT TIMES, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-80S INLAND. ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE STALLING AS IT MOVES
INTO FLORIDA, THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION. WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. NONETHELESS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING MON-TUE AMID LINGERING
MOISTURE. THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WED-THU AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
FRESHEN AND SEAS BUILD 5-7 FT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR BREVARD AND TREASURE
COAST WATERS TODAY AND EXPANDING TO INCLUDE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEARSHORE
VOLUSIA WATERS. BREEZY SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SAT SO BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS THEN IMPROVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WIND FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY MON AND SW TUESDAY ALLOWING SEAS
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET OFFSHORE AND BELOW 4 FEET NEARSHORE.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL WATERS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ON
SUN AFTERNOON/EVE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ENE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE
GENERALLY 8-14KT. BREEZY/WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TODAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING E-ESE AND INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SPEEDS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AROUND
10 KT AROUND SUNDOWN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TO 10-15KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TODAY...BREEZY/GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOWEST RH VALUES
AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER LAKE COUNTY. GIVEN THAT AREA IS EXPERIENCING
SEVERE DROUGHT, COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND RAISED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR LAKE COUNTY. BUT THE REMAINDER OF EAST
CENTRAL FL WILL EXPERIENCE FIRE SENSITIVE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
GUSTY EAST WINDS (15-20 MPH GUSTING 30 MPH) EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT THRESHOLD ALONG THE COAST. IN
OTHER WORDS, ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY WHETHER
THEY ARE IN THE RED FLAG OR NOT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RED FLAG
MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WESTERN ORANGE AND NW OSCEOLA BUT HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
WEEKEND...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SAT SO MIN RH
VALUES WILL HOLD ABOVE 40 PERCENT OVER ALL THE INTERIOR. A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 64 80 66 / 0 20 20 30
MCO 80 64 82 68 / 0 0 10 40
MLB 78 66 80 68 / 0 10 10 40
VRB 79 65 80 67 / 0 10 20 50
LEE 82 63 84 66 / 0 0 10 30
SFB 81 63 82 66 / 0 0 10 30
ORL 81 64 83 68 / 0 0 10 40
FPR 79 65 80 67 / 0 10 20 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ044-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ572-575.
UPDATE...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WATSON
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