102
FXUS62 KMLB 282339
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
739 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2345
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHEN AND SEAS BUILD
- MOISTURE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HOP INTO APRIL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2345
CURRENT-TONIGHT...SEASONALLY WARM WITH DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AS MAX
HIGHS REALIZE U70S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 80F TO L80S INTO THE
INTERIOR. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS CENTERED OFF
OF THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED EAST-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF ECFL. THIS IS PROVIDING A DEEP LOW-
LEVEL ESE FLOW WITH A TIGHTENING PGRAD ALLOWING FOR BREEZY (15-20
MPH) WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30 MPH, FEW TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SENSITIVITY ACROSS THE AREA, ESP FOR ONGOING
OR NEW BRUSHFIRES. CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY WITH PWATS UNDER ONE INCH,
THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT OVER
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT TICK UPWARD IN MOISTURE
AND SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE A FEW "LOW-TOPPED"
SHOWERS TO FIND THEIR WAY TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEP
ONSHORE FLOW.
OVERNIGHT MINS MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT REMAINING ELEVATED 10-15 MPH (FEW HIGHER
GUSTS) ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC,
BUT STILL PROVIDES AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS ALSO A WEAKER, WE WILL STILL SEE ESE WINDS 10-15 MPH (WITH HIGHER
GUSTS - ESP ALONG THE COAST). MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND PUSHES FURTHER
SEAWARD. WITH SOME OCCASIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THE SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT, WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWER CHANCES SOUTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GREATEST THREAT SAT OVERNIGHT (30-40PCT) WHEN WE
COULD ALSO REALIZED AN ISOLD (20PCT) LIGHTNING STORM THREAT,
GENERALLY WELL SOUTH OF MELBOURNE OVERNIGHT. LOW-TOPPED SHOWER
CHANCES (LESS THAN 20PCT) SHOULD WANE DURING THE MORNING HOURS SAT
AS THE STEERING FLOW VEERS MORE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY
FOCUS WILL BE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE
TREASURE COAST, LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SAT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN THE M60S FOR MOST AND U60S TO AROUND 70F
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5-1.7")
AND A PASSING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHEST POPS OUR AREA HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME. CONTINUE TO
CAP POPS AT 70% DUE TO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ABOUT WHERE
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE. IT STILL APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
REGARDLESS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A SEA BREEZE COLLISION. BUT SUPPORT ALOFT WILL
ENHANCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS (WIND GUSTS/HAIL) DUE TO DRY AIR AND COLD TEMPS
ALOFT (-10 TO -12 C). IF THESE TRENDS PERSIST, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A MRGL SEVERE RISK INTRODUCED BY SPC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, BREEZY AT TIMES, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
L80S ALONG THE COAST AND M80S INLAND. OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE M-U60S.
MON-THU...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS
FEATURE STALLING AS IT MOVES INTO FLORIDA, THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION. WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF. NONETHELESS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING MON-
TUE AMID LINGERING MOISTURE. THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WED-THU AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2345
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETERIORATING
BOATING CONDITIONS (SOUTH --> NORTH) AS ESE WINDS FRESHEN AND SEAS
BUILD 5-7 FT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST WATERS
EXPANDING TO INCLUDE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEAR SHORE VOLUSIA WATERS. BREEZY SE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SAT SO BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR TO
HAZARDOUS THEN IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WIND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY MON AND SW MON NIGHT-TUE ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW
6 FT OFFSHORE AND BELOW 4 FT NEAR SHORE. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ON SUN AFTERNOON/EVE. SOME
STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVE COULD BE OFFSHORE-MOVING AND STRONG WITH
PRIMARY IMPACTS CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND ANY CIGS AROUND 4-5KFT AND 18-25KFT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH TOMORROW, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BREEZY E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE INTERIOR AND AT THE
COAST FROM KTIX NORTHWARD INTO TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST FROM KMLB SOUTHWARD. E/SE WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 11-16 KNOTS SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2345
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY/GUSTY ESE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH LOWEST RH VALUES AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER LAKE COUNTY, HENCE A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR LAKE COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF EAST
CENTRAL FL WILL EXPERIENCE HEIGHTENED FIRE SENSITIVE CONDITIONS
DUE TO THE GUSTY ERLY WINDS (15-20 MPH GUSTING 30 MPH) EVEN THOUGH
RH VALUES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT THRESHOLD ALONG THE
COAST. ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY WHETHER THEY
ARE IN THE RED FLAG OR NOT.
WEEKEND...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SAT SO MIN RH
VALUES WILL HOLD ABOVE 40 PERCENT OVER ALL THE INTERIOR. A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN/LIGHTNING STORMS (FEW STRONG) SUN. WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK WELL INTO THE 80S AND PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE L90S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 78 65 80 / 20 10 20 70
MCO 63 82 67 82 / 0 10 30 70
MLB 66 79 68 80 / 10 10 30 70
VRB 65 80 67 82 / 10 10 40 70
LEE 62 83 66 83 / 0 10 30 70
SFB 63 81 66 82 / 0 10 20 70
ORL 64 82 68 82 / 0 10 30 70
FPR 65 80 67 82 / 10 10 40 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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