503
FXUS62 KMLB 291141
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
741 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOR EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS TO 7 FT
- MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY
- WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS WE HOP INTO APRIL WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL CONTINUE
SEAWARD WHILE WIND FLOW BECOMES SE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ESP ALONG THE COAST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, SO NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE
VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ADVANCES EAST. WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ISOLATED (20%) SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE (30-40%) OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THE
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THESE SHOWERS HAVE A
CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO LIGHTNING STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 COAST AND MID 80S FAR
INTERIOR (LAKE).
SUN/SUN NIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING AT SUNRISE,
LIFTING NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS, COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5-1.7") AND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST POPS OUR AREA
HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME (80%). THE SUPPORT ALOFT WILL ENHANCE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION COULD
PRODUCE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS (WIND GUSTS/HAIL)
DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-10 TO -12 C). THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF
CONVECTION CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL MID DAY/AFTERNOON AND ALLOW MORE
HEATING/INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. BUT AN EARLY START TO THE
CONVECTION WOULD BLANKET THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER. SOME AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
MON-FRI...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE STALLING AS IT MOVES INTO
FLORIDA, THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION. NONETHELESS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING MON-
TUE AMID LINGERING MOISTURE. THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WED-FRI AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH OF THE WATERS FROM HIGH
CENTER OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. FAIRLY TIGHT E/SE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 15-22 KTS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
EXCEPT NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WHERE A CAUTION IS HEADLINED. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY BUT THE SCA
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
BREVARD/TREASURE COAST NEARSHORE WATERS. CHOPPY SEAS 5-7 FEET.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 7 FEET TONIGHT BUT REMAIN POOR
SUNDAY OR AT LEAST LESS THAN IDEAL. WIND FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY MON
AND SW MON NIGHT/TUE ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OFFSHORE
AND BELOW 4 FT NEAR SHORE.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AND SUN AS
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL WATERS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ON SUN.
BOATERS SHOULD BEWARE OF STORMS THAT LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE
INTRACOASTAL OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE-MOVING STORMS SUN, CONTAINING
CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH (MAINLY KISM TO VRB SOUTHWARD) THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREA IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. BREEZY AND GUSTY E/SE WINDS TODAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET,
ESPECIALLY MLB NORTHWARD, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR
LESS, REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST FROM VRB SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH STARTING AROUND 09/10Z FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS STARTING AT 15Z AT MCO. TEMPOS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
IN LATER TAF PACKAGES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
NO CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND OR WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY/TONIGHT SO MIN RH VALUES WILL HOLD ABOVE 40 PERCENT OVER
ALL THE INTERIOR. A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN/LIGHTNING STORMS SUN WITH
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS. WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON-WED REACHING THE
UPPER 80S INTERIOR AND PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 65 79 66 / 10 30 80 40
MCO 83 67 82 67 / 10 30 80 40
MLB 79 67 80 66 / 10 40 80 60
VRB 80 67 81 66 / 20 40 80 60
LEE 84 67 82 66 / 10 30 80 30
SFB 83 66 82 66 / 0 30 80 40
ORL 83 67 82 68 / 10 30 80 40
FPR 80 67 82 66 / 20 40 80 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...WATSON
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