346
FXUS62 KMLB 291723
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
123 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOR EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS TO 7 FT
- MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY
- WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS WE HOP INTO APRIL WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KMLB 88D SHOWS SPRINKLES AND LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BREVARD WATERS WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING ONTO THE NORTH
BREVARD AND SOUTH VOLUSIA COASTS. ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE STEERING FLOW VEERS MORE S/SW
KEEPING ANY LIGHT RAINFALL ACTIVITY OFF OF THE COAST SHOULD IT
STILL BE ONGOING. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND
SLIDES SLOWLY FURTHER SEAWARD, BUT STILL PROVIDES AN ONSHORE FLOW.
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS A BIT WEAKER TODAY, WE WILL STILL
SEE ESE WINDS 10-15 MPH, GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING PUSHES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION WELL INTO THE INTERIOR, WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION (20-30PCT) PUSHING BACK EAST
ACROSS THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND POTENTIALLY FURTHER EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA, OKEECHOBEE, AND INTERIOR TREASURE COAST
COUNTIES. A GREATER THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVERNIGHT
(30-40PCT) WHEN WE COULD ALSO REALIZE AN ISOLD (20PCT) LIGHTNING
STORM THREAT (OKEECHOBEE & TREASURE COAST) AS SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIFTS NORTHWARD.
HIGHS IN THE U70S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 80F TO L80S INLAND.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE M-U60S, PERHAPS 70F ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL CONTINUE
SEAWARD WHILE WIND FLOW BECOMES SE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ESP ALONG THE COAST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, SO NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE
VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ADVANCES EAST. WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ISOLATED (20%) SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE (30-40%) OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THE
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THESE SHOWERS HAVE A
CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO LIGHTNING STORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 COAST AND MID 80S FAR
INTERIOR (LAKE).
SUN/SUN NIGHT...ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURRING AT SUNRISE,
LIFTING NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS, COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5-1.7") AND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST POPS OUR AREA
HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME (80%). THE SUPPORT ALOFT WILL ENHANCE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION COULD
PRODUCE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS (WIND GUSTS/HAIL)
DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-10 TO -12 C). THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF
CONVECTION CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL MID DAY/AFTERNOON AND ALLOW MORE
HEATING/INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. BUT AN EARLY START TO THE
CONVECTION WOULD BLANKET THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER. SOME AREAS WILL
RECEIVE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
MON-FRI...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE STALLING AS IT MOVES INTO
FLORIDA, THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER SOUTHWARD
SOLUTION. NONETHELESS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING MON-
TUE AMID LINGERING MOISTURE. THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WED-FRI AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 939 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
UPDATED FOR TODAY...LIKELY TO CARRY THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT
A BIT FURTHER (4PM/20Z) FOR NEAR SHORE BREVARD/TREASURE COAST
WATERS AS BOTH WINDS/SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. THE FORECAST IS STILL
FOR A SLOW, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF BOTH (NEAR 20 KTS/6FT
CURRENTLY) THRU THE DAY. KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING FOR NEAR
SHORE VOLUSIA AS WELL, WITH SEAS OVER 5 FT AT BUOY 41070 - THOUGH
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING HERE A LITTLE QUICKER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
INCREASING LOW AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
BUILDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, THOUGH VFR STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED.
MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION STILL LOW, SO NOT WILLING TO
INCLUDE VCSH THROUGH 10Z AT THE MOMENT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS, AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY, LIKELY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST INITIALLY AND SPREADING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY. OPTED TO START WITH VCSH AND
VCTS FOR NOW, THOUGH TEMPO AND PREVAILING CIG AND VSBY REDUCTIONS
LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
NO CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND OR WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY/TONIGHT SO MIN RH VALUES WILL HOLD ABOVE 40 PERCENT OVER
ALL THE INTERIOR. A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN/LIGHTNING STORMS SUN WITH
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS. WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON-WED REACHING THE
UPPER 80S INTERIOR AND PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 79 65 85 / 40 80 40 30
MCO 67 81 67 86 / 40 80 40 30
MLB 67 80 66 84 / 40 80 60 40
VRB 67 81 66 85 / 40 80 60 40
LEE 66 81 66 86 / 40 80 30 20
SFB 66 81 65 87 / 40 80 40 30
ORL 67 82 67 87 / 40 80 40 30
FPR 67 82 66 85 / 40 80 60 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ552-
555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
UPDATE...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...ULRICH
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