477
FXUS62 KMLB 291909
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS 6 TO 7 FT
- MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY - WHERE WE MIGHT SEE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS WE HOP INTO APRIL WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH TEMP MAXES IN THE U70S
NEAR THE COAST AND 80F TO L80S INTO THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WHILE SLIDING FURTHER
SEAWARD, WITH AN ONGOING ONSHORE FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STOUT, AS WE ARE SEEING ESE/SE WINDS 10-15 MPH, GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB WITH A GREATER SURGE UPWARD (FROM THE SOUTH) LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT, AS WELL AS A LATE DAY OR EARLY
EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION WELL INTO THE INTERIOR. THE S-SW
STEERING FLOW MAY TAKE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY (20-30PCT) BACK
ACROSS THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND THE TREASURE COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESP WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. A GREATER
THREAT FOR PRECIP AREAWIDE MAY BE OVERNIGHT (30-40PCT) AND TOWARDS
SUNRISE SUN MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS. AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STORM THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN. CONDITIONS WARM AND
MILD TONIGHT WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE M-U60S, PERHAPS 70F ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5-1.7") ALREADY BY THE
START OF THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS ECFL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND PRODUCE POPS UP TO 80PCT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS (WIND GUSTS/HAIL)
DUE TO DRY AIR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-10C TO -12C). THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH, BREEZY
AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. CLOUD-COVER AND PRECIP FORECAST TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE U70S TO L80S. OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE.
MON-SAT...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE STALLING AS IT MOVES INTO
FLORIDA, THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION.
NONETHELESS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING MON-TUE AMID
LINGERING MOISTURE. THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WED-SAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WILL KEEP GOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 10PM/02Z TONIGHT,
AND HAVE BACKED DOWN ADVISORY TO CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS NEAR SHORE
WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST. WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
AREAWIDE, THOUGH CHOPPY SEAS STILL BUILD (TONIGHT) 4-5 FT NEAR
SHORE VOLUSIA/BREVARD WATERS, 5-6 FT NEAR SHORE TREASURE COAST
AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE INTO MID-LATE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WIND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY MON AND SW MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE, BEFORE BECOMING SERLY
AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON-WED. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6
FT OFFSHORE AND BELOW 4 FT NEAR SHORE BY EARLY MON, POSSIBLY
FURTHER TO 2-4 FT AREAWIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL WATERS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ON
SUN AFTERNOON/EVE. SOME STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVE COULD BE OFFSHORE-
MOVING AND STRONG WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL TO COIN-SIZE HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. A WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
INCREASING LOW AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
BUILDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, THOUGH VFR STILL GENERALLY EXPECTED.
MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION STILL LOW, SO NOT WILLING TO
INCLUDE VCSH THROUGH 10Z AT THE MOMENT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS, AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY, LIKELY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST INITIALLY AND SPREADING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY. OPTED TO START WITH VCSH AND
VCTS FOR NOW, THOUGH TEMPO AND PREVAILING CIG AND VSBY REDUCTIONS
LIKELY TO BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PREVIOUS MODIFIED...NO CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND OR WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT SO MIN RH VALUES WILL HOLD ABOVE 40
PERCENT OVER ALL THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/LIGHTNING STORMS SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS. WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON-THU REACHING THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR AND PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 79 65 85 / 40 80 40 30
MCO 67 81 67 86 / 40 80 40 30
MLB 67 80 66 84 / 40 80 60 40
VRB 67 81 66 85 / 40 80 60 40
LEE 66 81 66 86 / 40 80 30 20
SFB 66 81 65 87 / 40 80 40 30
ORL 67 82 67 87 / 40 80 40 30
FPR 67 82 66 85 / 40 80 60 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...ULRICH
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