978
FXUS62 KMLB 300228
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1028 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS 6 TO 7 FT
- MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY - WHERE WE MIGHT SEE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS WE HOP INTO APRIL WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ADDED SOME 20 PCT POPS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
OVERKILL BUT WAS DRIVEN BY A MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THANKS TO THE MARINE LAYER AND A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WHERE AND WHEN DUE TO LIMITED
FORCING. INLAND, SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST ZIPPER (SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR THE WEST COAST) HAVE
CALLED IT QUITS, WITH JUST A FEW DEBRIS SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MORE SHOWERS AND
EVENING SOME LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT,
SO FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR 20-30 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVENTUALLY A 20 PCT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND 5 AM. RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING REACHING 40-60 PCT BY AROUND SUNRISE. CHANCES
FOR LIGHTNING STORMS REMAINS AROUND 20 PCT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SETTLE TO AROUND 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPING LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M60S-L70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH TEMP MAXES IN THE U70S
NEAR THE COAST AND 80F TO L80S INTO THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WHILE SLIDING FURTHER
SEAWARD, WITH AN ONGOING ONSHORE FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STOUT, AS WE ARE SEEING ESE/SE WINDS 10-15 MPH, GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB WITH A GREATER SURGE UPWARD (FROM THE SOUTH) LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT, AS WELL AS A LATE DAY OR EARLY
EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION WELL INTO THE INTERIOR. THE S-SW
STEERING FLOW MAY TAKE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY (20-30PCT) BACK
ACROSS THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND THE TREASURE COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESP WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. A GREATER
THREAT FOR PRECIP AREAWIDE MAY BE OVERNIGHT (30-40PCT) AND TOWARDS
SUNRISE SUN MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS. AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STORM THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN. CONDITIONS WARM AND
MILD TONIGHT WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE M-U60S, PERHAPS 70F ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5-1.7") ALREADY BY THE
START OF THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS ECFL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND PRODUCE POPS UP TO 80PCT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS (WIND GUSTS/HAIL)
DUE TO DRY AIR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-10C TO -12C). THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH, BREEZY
AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. CLOUD-COVER AND PRECIP FORECAST TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE U70S TO L80S. OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE.
MON-SAT...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE STALLING AS IT MOVES INTO
FLORIDA, THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION.
NONETHELESS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING MON-TUE AMID
LINGERING MOISTURE. THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WED-SAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN POOR (SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION) IN THE GULF STREAM FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20
KTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT, AND UNFAVORABLE CLOSER TO SHORE FOR
CHOPPY SEAS UP 5 FEET, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA VERY SLOWLY LOOSENS. RAIN AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WIND FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY MON AND SW MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE,
BEFORE BECOMING SERLY AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON-WED. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OFFSHORE AND BELOW 4 FT NEAR SHORE BY
EARLY MON, POSSIBLY FURTHER TO 2-4 FT AREAWIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL WATERS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ON
SUN AFTERNOON/EVE. SOME STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVE COULD BE OFFSHORE-
MOVING AND STRONG WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL TO COIN-SIZE HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. A WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOME
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PEAK HEATING, BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED
MENTION OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA FOR 19-23Z ACROSS INLAND
TERMINALS WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE FAVORED, AND TOWARD
KTIX/KDAB WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PUSH BACK
TOWARD THE COAST.
E/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS INCREASING UP TO 10-15
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO 18-22 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PREVIOUS MODIFIED...NO CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND OR WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH INTO TONIGHT SO MIN RH VALUES WILL HOLD ABOVE 40
PERCENT OVER ALL THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/LIGHTNING STORMS SUN WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS. WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MON-THU REACHING THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR AND PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 80 65 85 / 50 70 40 30
MCO 67 82 67 86 / 50 70 40 30
MLB 69 80 66 84 / 50 60 60 40
VRB 69 81 66 85 / 40 60 60 40
LEE 67 82 66 86 / 50 80 30 20
SFB 67 82 65 87 / 50 70 40 30
ORL 68 83 67 87 / 50 70 40 30
FPR 69 82 66 85 / 40 60 60 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
UPDATE...HALEY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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