050
FXUS62 KMLB 300610
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
210 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS 6 TO 7 FT
- MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY - WHERE WE MIGHT SEE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS WE HOP INTO APRIL WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH TEMP MAXES IN THE U70S
NEAR THE COAST AND 80F TO L80S INTO THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WHILE SLIDING FURTHER
SEAWARD, WITH AN ONGOING ONSHORE FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STOUT, AS WE ARE SEEING ESE/SE WINDS 10-15 MPH, GUSTS TO
20-25 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB WITH A GREATER SURGE UPWARD (FROM THE SOUTH) LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED
IMPULSES IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT, AS WELL AS A LATE DAY OR EARLY
EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION WELL INTO THE INTERIOR. THE S-SW
STEERING FLOW MAY TAKE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY (20-30PCT) BACK
ACROSS THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND THE TREASURE COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESP WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. A GREATER
THREAT FOR PRECIP AREAWIDE MAY BE OVERNIGHT (30-40PCT) AND TOWARDS
SUNRISE SUN MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS. AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STORM THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUN. CONDITIONS WARM AND
MILD TONIGHT WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE M-U60S, PERHAPS 70F ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.5-1.7") ALREADY BY THE
START OF THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS ECFL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND PRODUCE POPS UP TO 80PCT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS (WIND GUSTS/HAIL)
DUE TO DRY AIR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-10C TO -12C). THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH, BREEZY
AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. CLOUD-COVER AND PRECIP FORECAST TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE U70S TO L80S. OVERNIGHT MINS REMAIN IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE.
MON-SAT...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE STALLING AS IT MOVES INTO
FLORIDA, THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION.
NONETHELESS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS CONTINUING MON-TUE AMID
LINGERING MOISTURE. THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WED-SAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN POOR (SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION) IN THE GULF STREAM FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20
KTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT, AND UNFAVORABLE CLOSER TO SHORE FOR
CHOPPY SEAS UP 5 FEET, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA VERY SLOWLY LOOSENS. RAIN AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WIND FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY MON AND SW MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE,
BEFORE BECOMING SERLY AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON-WED. THIS WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OFFSHORE AND BELOW 4 FT NEAR SHORE BY
EARLY MON, POSSIBLY FURTHER TO 2-4 FT AREAWIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL WATERS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ON
SUN AFTERNOON/EVE. SOME STORMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVE COULD BE OFFSHORE-
MOVING AND STRONG WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL TO COIN-SIZE HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. A WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO TOMORROW, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
PEAK HEATING, BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. HAVE
MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR TSRA FOR 19-23Z ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS
WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE FAVORED, AND TOWARD KTIX/KDAB, AS
WELL AS MLB (FROM 22-24Z) WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, E/SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BY
MID MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 18-22 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNDOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH VCSH CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 04Z.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOME
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS PEAK HEATING, BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED
MENTION OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA FOR 19-23Z ACROSS INLAND
TERMINALS WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE FAVORED, AND TOWARD
KTIX/KDAB WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PUSH BACK
TOWARD THE COAST.
E/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS INCREASING UP TO 10-15
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO 18-22 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 65 85 66 / 70 40 20 20
MCO 82 67 87 69 / 80 40 30 10
MLB 81 66 85 66 / 70 60 30 20
VRB 81 65 85 65 / 70 60 30 30
LEE 81 66 86 68 / 80 40 20 10
SFB 81 66 88 68 / 80 40 30 10
ORL 83 68 88 70 / 80 40 30 10
FPR 82 65 86 65 / 70 60 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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