852
FXUS62 KMLB 301138
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
738 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
CHOPPY SEAS
- SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY, PEAKING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS WE HOP INTO APRIL WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY/TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF PWATS BTWN 1.5-1.7"
IS IN PLACE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PREPARES TO CROSS THE
AREA LATER TODAY. THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH SO A SE
WIND FLOW WILL EXIST. THIS WILL PUSH A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE INLAND WHICH ITSELF COULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST AS IT PUSHES INLAND BY MID DAY. AN
EVENTUAL COLLISION WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS (70-80 PERCENT) THIS AFTERNOON. A SW
STEERING FLOW WILL BRING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BACK TO THE EAST
COAST THIS EVENING SO THIS SHOULD LINGER WELL PAST SUNSET. AND
SOME AREAS MAY SEE MORE THAN 1 ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS.
WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-10C TO -12C AT 500MB) AND ENOUGH MID
LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION, THERE IS A MRGL RISK FOR
A FEW STORMS TO CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT WILL OCCUR, LOCALLY ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WILL PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO. HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN NEED OF SOME RAIN, LOCALLY 2-4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL STILL CAUSE PONDING.
MON...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
WILL LINGER (PWATS ~1.3") TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE
DELAYED DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NOT MAKE IT TO THE INTERIOR. BETTER SFC HEATING WILL
PRODUCE WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CONTINUED COOL
AIR ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG SO COULD AGAIN SEE A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE
DAY.
TUE-SAT...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MID TO LATE WEEK AS AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 INTERIOR WHILE
HOLDING IN THE MID 80S COAST THANKS TO AN ONSHORE (SE) FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY...ATLC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY WILL SUPPORT SE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH CHOPPY SEAS, UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE. SO
POOR BOATING CONDS ON THE OPEN ATLC. IN ADDITION, LIGHTNING STORMS
THAT FORM OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST THIS
EVENING, SOME MOVING ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ONTO THE
NEARSHORE ATLC. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG CONTAINING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
WATERSPOUT.
MON-THU...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS RELOCATES SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY
EARLY MON WHICH WILL VEER THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NORTH FL. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THIS WILL IMPROVE BOATING CONDITIONS AS SEAS
FALL BELOW 6 FT OFFSHORE MON AFTN AND BELOW 5 FT TUE AFTN. A
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WED-THU AND INCREASE THE SE WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
BECOMING CHOPPY ONCE AGAIN AND BUILDING UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY, WITH NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM 17Z TO 02Z MON.
SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. TEMPOS FOR TSRA EXIST, 19-23Z ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS
WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE FAVORED, EXTENDING TOWARD
KTIX/KDAB, AS WELL AS MLB (FROM 22-24Z) WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
VCSH WILL LINGER TONIGHT WITH MOST SHRA ENDING AROUND 04Z, EXCEPT
08Z FOR MLB/VRB AND 10Z FOR FPR/SUA. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, E/SE
WINDS OF 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 18-22 KT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNDOWN WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 65 85 66 / 70 40 20 20
MCO 82 67 87 69 / 80 40 30 10
MLB 81 66 85 66 / 70 60 30 20
VRB 81 65 85 65 / 70 60 30 30
LEE 81 66 86 68 / 80 40 20 10
SFB 81 66 88 68 / 80 40 30 10
ORL 83 68 88 70 / 80 40 30 10
FPR 82 65 86 65 / 70 60 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...WATSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page