484
FXUS62 KMLB 301751
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
151 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
CHOPPY SEAS
- SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY, PEAKING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS WE HOP INTO APRIL WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...SURGING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT HAS
INCREASED PWATS TO BETWEEN 1.50-1.70 INCHES AREAWIDE. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT (H500: -10C TO -12C)
WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS ARE QUIET NOW, BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
THE ECSB DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. ONE THING TO WATCH IS WILL
CLOUD-COVER STYMIE/DELAY COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TODAY.
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT
MAY NOT BECOME NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD (70-80PCT) UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA. WITH SW STEERING WINDS, THIS WILL TAKE CONVECTION
BACK TO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP, WHICH COULD ADD
UP LOCALLY TO 2-4 INCHES. THE WPC HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF ECFL IN A
MARGINAL (DAY 1) RISK FOR POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE
STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE
BEEN VERY DRY OVERALL. OTHER PRIMARY IMPACTS INCLUDE OCCASIONAL
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-55 MPH - PERHAPS
A COUPLE OF STORMS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH, SMALL TO COIN-SIZE HAIL,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO. ALL OF ECFL REMAINS
OUTLOOKED BY THE SPC FOR A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 MPH AT THE COAST
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY NEAR 80F AT THE COAST AND L80S (POSSIBLY M80S)
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE CLIMO IN THE 60S
AREAWIDE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY/TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF PWATS BTWN 1.5-1.7"
IS IN PLACE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PREPARES TO CROSS THE
AREA LATER TODAY. THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH SO A SE
WIND FLOW WILL EXIST. THIS WILL PUSH A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE INLAND WHICH ITSELF COULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST AS IT PUSHES INLAND BY MID DAY. AN
EVENTUAL COLLISION WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS (70-80 PERCENT) THIS AFTERNOON. A SW
STEERING FLOW WILL BRING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BACK TO THE EAST
COAST THIS EVENING SO THIS SHOULD LINGER WELL PAST SUNSET. AND
SOME AREAS MAY SEE MORE THAN 1 ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS.
WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-10C TO -12C AT 500MB) AND ENOUGH MID
LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION, THERE IS A MRGL RISK FOR
A FEW STORMS TO CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT WILL OCCUR, LOCALLY ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WILL PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO. HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AND WHILE
MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN NEED OF SOME RAIN, LOCALLY 2-4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL STILL CAUSE PONDING.
MON...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
WILL LINGER (PWATS ~1.3") TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE
DELAYED DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NOT MAKE IT TO THE INTERIOR. BETTER SFC HEATING WILL
PRODUCE WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CONTINUED COOL
AIR ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG SO COULD AGAIN SEE A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE
DAY.
TUE-SAT...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MID TO LATE WEEK AS AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 INTERIOR WHILE
HOLDING IN THE MID 80S COAST THANKS TO AN ONSHORE (SE) FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY...ATLC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY WILL SUPPORT SE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH CHOPPY SEAS, UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE. SO
POOR BOATING CONDS ON THE OPEN ATLC. IN ADDITION, LIGHTNING STORMS
THAT FORM OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST THIS
EVENING, SOME MOVING ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ONTO THE
NEARSHORE ATLC. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG CONTAINING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
WATERSPOUT.
MON-THU...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS RELOCATES SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY
EARLY MON WHICH WILL VEER THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NORTH FL. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE AND SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THIS WILL IMPROVE BOATING CONDITIONS AS SEAS
FALL BELOW 6 FT OFFSHORE MON AFTN AND BELOW 5 FT TUE AFTN. A
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WED-THU AND INCREASE THE SE WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
BECOMING CHOPPY ONCE AGAIN AND BUILDING UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHRA/TSRA ARE BEGINNING AT/NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
INCLUDING DAB/VRB/FPR/SUA. COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
THRU 22Z, ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE INTERIOR SITES.
MAINTAINED AND ADJUSTED TEMPOS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS, WITH SITES SEEING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
TSRA BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IMPACTED SITES
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHRA/TSRA WILL PUSH BACK TOWARD COASTAL
SITES AFTER 23Z, GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THRU
07Z-09Z MON.
OUTSIDE OF TSRA, SSE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT GUSTING 20-25 KT. WINDS
SLOW OVERNIGHT, RETURNING TO 5-10 KT OUT OF THE SSW MONDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 85 66 84 / 60 40 20 20
MCO 66 88 69 88 / 60 30 20 20
MLB 66 84 66 84 / 60 40 30 20
VRB 65 85 66 85 / 60 30 40 10
LEE 66 86 68 87 / 40 20 10 20
SFB 66 88 68 88 / 60 30 10 20
ORL 67 88 69 88 / 60 30 20 20
FPR 65 85 66 85 / 60 30 40 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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