545
FXUS62 KMLB 302332
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
732 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE WELL OFFSHORE INTO THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.
- SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE PEAKING EARLY
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS, CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS WE HOP INTO APRIL WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...AHEAD OF PRECIP SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN
HIGHER THAN MODELS FORECAST; UP TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
15-20 MPH ALONG THE COAST - ALL WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HIGHS TODAY
NEAR 80F AT THE COAST AND L80S (POSSIBLY M80S) ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWARD MOVEMENT FOR NOW AND FORECAST IS FOR
CELLS TO VEER MORE SWRLY LATER ON WHICH WILL TAKE STORMS OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL BE A
COLLISION OF THE EC/WC SEA BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN PENINSULA
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STORMS STACKING UP ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP, WHICH COULD ADD
UP LOCALLY TO 2-4 INCHES. THE WPC HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF ECFL IN A
MARGINAL (DAY 1) RISK FOR POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE BEEN VERY
DRY OVERALL RECENTLY. OTHER PRIMARY IMPACTS INCLUDE OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-55 MPH - PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF STORMS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH, SMALL TO COIN-SIZE HAIL, AND
A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. ALL OF ECFL REMAINS OUTLOOKED
BY THE SPC FOR A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN MID-LATE EVENING, WITH LAND AREAS MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE CLIMO IN THE 60S AREAWIDE WITH CONDITIONS
HUMID. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT
INTRODUCED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES, AT LEAST YET, WE MAY HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.
MON-MON NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH, WHILE REMAINING NORTH OF ECFL. AN OFFSHORE (SSW-SW) WIND
COMPONENT DEVELOPS, BUT "BACKS" ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE
COAST WITH (DELAYED) SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. INLAND PUSH OF THIS
FEATURE IS SLOW AND PERHAPS FUTILE (VOLUSIA COAST). IT WILL LIKELY
BE A FEATURE FOR LATE DAY/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
PREVIOUS (SUN) NIGHT'S AND MON MORNING (DECAYING) CONVECTION. THIS
COULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTION NORTHWARD.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD ALOFT (H500: -10C TO -11C), THOUGH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL. LOWER PWATS AT LEAST INITIALLY WILL SURGE
UPWARD ALONG THE COAST LATE IN DAY/EARLY EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO
THE SEA BREEZE. AT PRESENT, WE CARRY ISOLD-SCT (20-30PCT; EXCEPT
40PCT ALONG THE COAST) COVERAGE FOR MAINLY LATE ON MON. SURFACE
HEATING COULD PLAY A ROLE AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE M80S AT THE
COAST AND U80S INLAND. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
COAST THRU MID-LATE EVENING, THEN MAINLY DRY OVER LAND OVERNIGHT.
MILD TEMPS OVERNIGHT CONTINUE IN THE M60S TO NEAR 70F.
TUE-SUN...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE MID TO LATE WEEK AS AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
AND FL PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING
THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 INTERIOR WHILE HOLDING IN THE MID 80S COAST
THANKS TO AN ONSHORE (SE) FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SERLY WINDS NEAR 15 KTS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC VEER S/SSW (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH AND AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH A BIT
OVERNIGHT 7-13 KTS BY DAYBREAK MON AS THE PGRAD RELAXES.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS CONTINUE OFFSHORE AS SEAS BUILD 4-6 FT HERE
AND 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE EC FL
PENINSULA COMBINED WITH SW STORM STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED LIGHTING STORMS OFF OF THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING. STORM IMPACTS FROM A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS INCLUDE CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING
STRIKES, VERY GUSTY WINDS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY
SOUTH/WESTWARD FOR DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING STORMS LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.
MON-THU...PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
RELOCATES SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY MON WHICH WILL VEER THE WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER NORTH FL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW WINDS TO
DECREASE AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THIS WILL IMPROVE BOATING
CONDITIONS AS SEAS FALL BELOW 6 FT OFFSHORE MON AFTN AND BELOW 5 FT
TUE AFTN. A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WED-THU AND INCREASE THE SE WIND FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS BECOMING CHOPPY ONCE AGAIN AND BUILDING UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AS OF 23Z, LINE OF +TSRA HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE I-4/NORTH
TERMINALS, AND IS APPROACHING KTIX-KMLB. BASED ON TRENDS AND
LATEST GUIDANCE (FOR WHAT THAT'S BEEN WORTH), THERE'S POTENTIAL
FOR THE LINE OF TSRA TO HOLD TOGETHER ALL THE WAY TO KVRB-KSUA.
HOLDING OFF TEMPOS FOR NOW, BUT DO HAVE VCTS RUNNING THROUGH 06Z,
AND WILL AMD IN TEMPOS IF NEEDED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
AFTERWARDS. THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AT BEST, AND DON'T HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. ISO TSRA POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SEA BREEZE COLLISION INVOF OF THE I-4 TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 86 66 84 / 60 20 20 20
MCO 66 88 69 88 / 60 20 20 20
MLB 66 84 66 84 / 60 30 30 20
VRB 66 86 66 85 / 50 30 40 10
LEE 66 87 68 87 / 40 20 10 20
SFB 66 88 68 88 / 60 20 10 20
ORL 67 88 69 88 / 60 20 20 20
FPR 66 86 66 85 / 50 30 40 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...HALEY
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