218
FXUS62 KMLB 050217
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1017 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS, AND SMALL HAIL.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK, IN ADDITION TO A MODERATE HEATRISK OVER THE INTERIOR
TUESDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PERSISTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON LEFT
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH COMBINED WITH A SLUG OF DRIER AIR MOVING OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA, RESULTED IN JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND ONLY ONE
LIGHTNING STORM DEVELOPING OVER LAND THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT
JUST A SLIVER OF LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) WITH VERY LOW LIGHTNING
CHANCES (LESS THAN 20%) CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, WHICH
ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
REMEMBER, A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THIS TIME WITHOUT POTENTIAL FOR MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT, RESULTING IN A
HIGHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BUILT ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY LINGERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN CLEARING CLOUD COVER FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT,
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. INCONSISTENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE SUGGESTED THE BEST CHANCE FOR LATE DAY STORMS TO OCCUR ALONG
THE COAST AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH A DELAYED SEA BREEZE. STRONG
STORM HAZARDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH (ISOLATED 60 MPH), AND
SMALL HAIL. A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST.
LATE STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR BY 9-10 PM
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOSTLY RANGE THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MONDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES NEAR TO NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL
AND THE ORLANDO METRO ON MONDAY. DRY AIR ADVECTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHILE HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-4 (PWAT ~ 1.3-1.6). AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY, DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES. THE GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (50-70%) ARE
FORECAST FROM TITUSVILLE TO KISSIMMEE SOUTHWARD WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. FURTHER NORTH, BUILDING DRY AIR WILL KEEP
POPS BETWEEN 30-50 PERCENT. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST WHERE
MODELED SURFACE CAPE VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 2,000 J/KG. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR
STRONG DOWNBURST WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
ADDITIONAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A WEAK TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORM BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. STEERING FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR
PUSHBACK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S WEST OF I-95. CLOSER TO THE COAST, TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WIDELY RANGE THE 60S
WITH LOW 70S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO MID WEEK. ALOFT, WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF,
EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA. TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED MOISTURE NOW LINGERING
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-
40%) AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BACK ONSHORE AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL VALUES RANGING THE LOW
90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST EACH
DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY, RANGING THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)... SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS (POPS ~ 20-40%) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE FORECAST TO THE NORTH
OF MELBOURNE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.20-1.60" RANGE.
RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY (POPS ~ 40-
60%) AND SATURDAY (POPS ~60%) WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE GULF
OF AMERICA, IN ADDITION TO THE STATE OF FLORIDA, COUPLED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE LOW TO UPPER 80S FORECAST ON SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15
KTS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. SEAS REMAIN STEADY AROUND
2-3 FT THROUGH MID WEEK. OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF
34 KTS OR GREATER, AND SMALL HAIL. A STRONG STORM THREAT IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WATERS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GRADUALLY DECREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (20-40%).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEPT VCTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z-03Z AT KTIX-KSUA WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS, MUCH
LESS STORMS, IS LOW. THERE ARE STILL LOW CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z-13Z, POSSIBLY LEADING TO TEMPO MVFR-IFR
IMPACTS, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT INTO THE TAFS. SHORT
FUSED AMDS MAY BE NEEDED AT A FEW TERMINALS IF FOG MANAGES TO
FORM. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR THE I-4 TERMINALS AROUND 19Z,
THEN PUSHING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 86 65 87 / 20 40 10 20
MCO 68 89 68 91 / 10 60 10 30
MLB 67 86 69 86 / 30 60 40 30
VRB 67 86 68 86 / 30 60 40 30
LEE 67 89 65 91 / 0 40 0 30
SFB 67 90 67 91 / 10 50 10 30
ORL 68 90 69 91 / 10 60 10 30
FPR 66 86 68 86 / 30 60 40 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...HALEY
AVIATION...HALEY
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