029
FXUS62 KMLB 051132
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
732 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA; THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK, IN ADDITION TO A MODERATE HEATRISK OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY
AND INTO MIDWEEK
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRRENTLY-TUESDAY... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A "COOL" FRONT IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH EXTENDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE (~1011MB) NEAR THE INDIANA AND KENTUCKY BOARDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 4-
8MPH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE CONVERGES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE GREATEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN SHOWER (POPS ~40-70%) AND LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES ARE FORECAST. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING MLCAPE UP TO
2,500-3,000 J/KG, SCP BETWEEN 2-7, EHI BETWEEN 1-3, 0-3KM SRH AT 200-
400 M^2/S^2, AND SHIP BETWEEN 1-2, IN ADDITION TO CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ML LAPSE RATES, 500MB TEMPERATURES AT -12C, AND 30-40KTS 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS FORECAST
FROM BREVARD COUNTY AND TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA (EXCEPT FOR WESTERN LAKE
COUNTY) WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THE POTENTIAL (5-14%) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH, LARGE HAIL UP TO 1" DIAMETER, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL (UP TO 1-2"), AND A LOW CHANCE (2-4%) FOR
A TORNADO. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
FROM 3PM TO 9PM AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS ~ 40-70%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-4. RAIN SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-
25MPH TO THE EAST OF THE ORLANDO METRO AND AT AROUND 10MPH FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE ORLANDO METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO MIDWEEK. DRIER AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (POPS ~20-30%) FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS ~20-40%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONVERGES WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEA
BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TREASURE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
FORECAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MEANDER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE STATE OF
FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE, RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY (POPS ~40-60%) AND INTO THE WEEKEND (POPS
~60-7%) WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.50-1.90." SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRENTLY-TUESDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (POPS ~20-60%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60MPH, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND A LOW CHANCE (~2-4%) FOR A WATERSPOUT. SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS
INTO THE AFTERNOONS AT 6-14KTS ARE FORECAST. SEAS TO 2-3FT ARE
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
GENERALLY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (POPS ~ 20-40%) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS ~40-60%) FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 34KTS
OR GREATER AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 6-14KTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTH INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15KTS. SEAS TO 2-3FT ARE FORECAST WITH UP TO 4 FT
FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR A SMALL THREAT OF PATCHY FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT WE HAVE SEEN SOME MVFR STRATUS NEAR/NORTH OF
I-4. LIGHT SWRLY FLOW EARLY, THEN WINDS "BACK" AT THE COAST WITH
SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND SLOW INLAND MOVEMENT. SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. COULD SEE ISOLD CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZES. GREATEST COVERAGE/INTENSITY STILL EXPECTED
NEAR TO SOUTH/EAST OF KMCO. PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACTS INCLUDE
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS, SMALL HAIL,
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WILL BEEF UP "VICINITY" WORDING AND
TEMPO GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE/DISSIPATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 65 87 69 / 30 10 20 10
MCO 88 68 90 72 / 40 10 20 10
MLB 87 69 86 71 / 60 30 20 10
VRB 87 69 86 70 / 60 40 20 10
LEE 87 66 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
SFB 89 67 91 70 / 40 10 20 10
ORL 88 69 91 72 / 40 10 20 10
FPR 86 69 86 69 / 60 40 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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