961
FXUS62 KMLB 051756
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
156 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING; THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS ARE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK, IN ADDITION TO A MODERATE HEATRISK OVER THE INTERIOR
TUESDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR
OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH STORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RELATIVELY DRY
ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
AS THE DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS FOR INCREASING ENERGY ACROSS THE
AREA. THE 10Z XMR SOUNDING INDICATED SOME LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT, WITH A MEASURED PWAT OF 1.31 INCHES. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP TO FURTHER ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
FEEDING OFF OF THIS MOISTURE AND ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 10Z XMR SOUNDING WERE
ALREADY MEASURING IN AROUND 1500 J/KG, WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR PUSHING DCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 900 J/KG. THE 500 MB
TEMPERATURE FROM THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING MEASURED IN AROUND -11.5C.
SHEAR AND SRH VALUES WERE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT MODELED
GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING VALUES (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST)
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE BACKED DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE. BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES CONTINUE TO REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR,
WITH THE PRIMARY STORM CONCERNS FOR TODAY BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER,
A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS UP
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. BASED ON CAM GUIDANCE,
TIMING FOR CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE BETWEEN 3 AND 10 PM. ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WORKED OVER.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 60S, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRRENTLY-TUESDAY... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. A "COOL" FRONT IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH EXTENDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE (~1011MB) NEAR THE INDIANA AND KENTUCKY BOARDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 4-
8MPH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE CONVERGES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE GREATEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN SHOWER (POPS ~40-70%) AND LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES ARE FORECAST. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING MLCAPE UP TO
2,500-3,000 J/KG, SCP BETWEEN 2-7, EHI BETWEEN 1-3, 0-3KM SRH AT 200-
400 M^2/S^2, AND SHIP BETWEEN 1-2, IN ADDITION TO CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ML LAPSE RATES, 500MB TEMPERATURES AT -12C, AND 30-40KTS 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS FORECAST
FROM BREVARD COUNTY AND TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA (EXCEPT FOR WESTERN LAKE
COUNTY) WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THE POTENTIAL (5-14%) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH, LARGE HAIL UP TO 1" DIAMETER, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL (UP TO 1-2"), AND A LOW CHANCE (2-4%) FOR
A TORNADO. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
FROM 3PM TO 9PM AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS ~ 40-70%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-4. RAIN SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-
25MPH TO THE EAST OF THE ORLANDO METRO AND AT AROUND 10MPH FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE ORLANDO METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO MIDWEEK. DRIER AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES (POPS ~20-30%) FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST.
LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS ~20-40%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONVERGES WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEA
BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TREASURE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
FORECAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MEANDER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE STATE OF
FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE, RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY (POPS ~40-60%) AND INTO THE WEEKEND (POPS
~60-7%) WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.50-1.90." SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRENTLY-TUESDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (POPS ~20-60%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60MPH, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND A LOW CHANCE (~2-4%) FOR A WATERSPOUT. SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS
INTO THE AFTERNOONS AT 6-14KTS ARE FORECAST. SEAS TO 2-3FT ARE
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
GENERALLY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (POPS ~ 20-40%) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS ~40-60%) FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 34KTS
OR GREATER AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 6-14KTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTH INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT 10-15KTS. SEAS TO 2-3FT ARE FORECAST WITH UP TO 4 FT
FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING INLAND, WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FL. INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. GREATEST
COVERAGE AND THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR TO SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR, AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS MOST LOCATIONS FOR TSRA
IMPACTS FROM 19-23Z, BUT SOME OF THESE WINDOWS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE EVENING.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION, WITH
MAIN STORM THREATS BEING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE, WITH WINDS THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 87 70 87 / 20 20 10 50
MCO 68 92 71 91 / 20 30 10 50
MLB 69 86 71 87 / 30 30 10 40
VRB 68 87 70 87 / 40 30 10 30
LEE 67 91 72 90 / 10 30 10 50
SFB 67 92 70 92 / 20 30 10 50
ORL 69 92 72 92 / 20 30 10 50
FPR 68 87 70 87 / 40 30 10 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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