607
FXUS62 KMLB 051900
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
- A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COUNTIES EXCEPT LAKE COUNTY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH 9 PM.
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE
PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
A TORNADO.
- A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND
IS SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND, MOVING A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN
INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE
DRAPED JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH MOISTURE OUT AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY BEING FURTHER INCREASED LOCALLY DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THESE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS, SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE,
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING, WITH INCREASING ENERGY
ANTICIPATED LOCALLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE VALUES REACHING
1500 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF ENERGY
FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
HELP SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM -13 TO -11C LOCALLY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST
SHEAR, THE BACKING OF WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO GREATER
SRH VALUES ALONG THE COAST. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THERE IS ALSO
SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A
RESULT OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL AS
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE. DRIER
CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT DCAPE VALUES
REACHING 900 TO 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH FORCING FROM
THE STALLED BOUNDARY, THE SEA BREEZE, AND ANY ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS BEING THE PRIMARY DRIVERS BEHIND STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TIMING BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM FOR THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT DESCRIBED, STORM THREATS
INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH (AND OCCASIONALLY TO 70
MPH), A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ANYWHERE THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS STALL.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCREASED THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
ALONG THE COAST, INTRODUCING A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD, PRIMARILY FOR THE HAIL THREAT. THE MARGINAL
RISK (1/5) REMAINS UNCHANGED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ADDITIONALLY, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES EXCEPT LAKE COUNTY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH 9 PM.
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES WORKED OVER. LINGERING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 60S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...A MID-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY,
SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND TOWARDS FLORIDA,
BECOMING FLATTENED ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH THE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. A DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, BECOMING
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON, AND THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EACH EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, BECOMING MORE OF A TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE
PENINSULA INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL GET A SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT THANKS TO AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF,
GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE PENINSULA. MODELED PWATS JUMP TO 1.5 TO 1.9
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NBM POP VALUES
CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT HIGH, SO CAPPED AT 55 PERCENT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY RELATIVE TO COVERAGE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES OVER TIME. THERE IS ALSO A
20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS EACH DAY. ACTIVITY WILL POTENTIALLY
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, COOLING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE LIMITS DAYTIME
HEATING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS NEAR STRONGER STORMS, HAIL, AND
BRIEF WATERSPOUTS.
A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PROVIDING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT, WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MOST
DAYS, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION, OCEAN CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS NEAR THE COAST
WILL BACK TO OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING INLAND, WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FL. INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. GREATEST
COVERAGE AND THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR TO SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR, AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS MOST LOCATIONS FOR TSRA
IMPACTS FROM 19-23Z, BUT SOME OF THESE WINDOWS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE EVENING.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION, WITH
MAIN STORM THREATS BEING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE, WITH WINDS THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 87 70 87 / 20 20 10 50
MCO 68 92 71 91 / 20 30 10 50
MLB 69 86 71 87 / 30 30 10 40
VRB 68 87 70 87 / 40 30 10 30
LEE 67 91 72 90 / 10 30 10 50
SFB 67 92 70 92 / 20 30 10 50
ORL 69 92 72 92 / 20 30 10 50
FPR 68 87 70 87 / 40 30 10 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ041-
045-046-053-058-141-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
647-747.
AM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-
552-555.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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