985
FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
441 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
CURRENTLY-TODAY... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE (~1012MB) NEAR THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BOARDER. A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AMERICA.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS ~20-30%) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES (POPS ~ 30-60%) INCREASE AFTER 3PM TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TREASURE COAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND
AND CONVERGES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. RAIN
SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 9PM. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH GENERALLY SLOW EAST MOVING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40-50MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
(AMOUNTS UP TO 1-2"). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK EAST-SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE ORLANDO METRO
AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10MPH ARE FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE
ORLANDO METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
FORECAST UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA BEFORE WEAKENING
AND SHIFTING SOUT-SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEFORE A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.
DAILY SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO EACH AFTERNOON
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.50-2.00." THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS, AS WELL AS HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (POPS
~40-60%) ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SEBASTIAN TO
OKEECHOBEE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES INCREASE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THERE FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SATURDAY-MONDAY... GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE 300MB
JET STREAM OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN US INTO
THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DEVELOP AND MEANDER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG THE JET OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN HIGH COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (POPS ~50-70% SATURDAY
AND 50-70% SUNDAY/MONDAY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS FORECAST INTO EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
CURRENTLY-TODAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. A WEAK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED (POPS ~ 20-40%) OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
34KTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK SOUTH- SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 6-14KTS ARE
FORECAST. SEAS TO 2-3FT ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED GENERALLY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (POPS ~ 20-60%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS ~40-60%) SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST ON SATURDAY (POPS 50-70%). THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 34KTS OR
GREATER AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
6-14KTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT
10-18KTS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10-15KTS ON SATURDAY. SEAS TO
2-3FT ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 2-4FT SEAS ARE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
EARLIER NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS
HAVE PUSHED OFF OF THE COAST AND/OR DISSIPATED. MAINLY DRY OVER
LAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY FOG
OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUE MORNING. GENERALLY VFR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH STEERING FLOW DIRECTING SOME CONVECTION BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES IN THE EVENING.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. L/V WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING, THEN BECOME SE/ESE AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHES INLAND SLOWLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPEEDS 5-10 KTS ALONG THE
INTERIOR AND 12-15 KTS ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AGAIN TUE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 86 68 87 67 / 30 30 60 30
MCO 90 69 90 70 / 50 40 60 30
MLB 86 69 86 69 / 30 20 50 30
VRB 89 68 88 68 / 20 20 30 20
LEE 90 69 90 70 / 40 20 60 20
SFB 90 68 90 69 / 50 40 60 30
ORL 90 70 90 70 / 50 40 60 30
FPR 89 68 88 67 / 20 10 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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