623
FXUS62 KMLB 061120
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
720 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WITH
GREATER COVERAGE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
CURRENTLY-TODAY... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED OVER
THE EASTERN US AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE
(~1012MB) NEAR THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BOARDER. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AMERICA.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS ~20-30%) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES (POPS ~ 30-
60%) INCREASE AFTER 3PM TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TREASURE COAST
AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 9PM. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH GENERALLY
SLOW EAST MOVING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (AMOUNTS UP TO 1-2"). WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
TO THE EAST OF THE ORLANDO METRO AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10MPH ARE FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE
ORLANDO METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
FORECAST UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA BEFORE WEAKENING
AND SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEFORE A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.
DAILY SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO EACH AFTERNOON WITH
PWATS BETWEEN 1.50-2.00." THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS, AS WELL AS HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (POPS ~40-60%) ARE
FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SEBASTIAN TO OKEECHOBEE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THERE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH GENERALLY SLOW EAST MOVING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40-50MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (AMOUNTS
UP TO 1-2"). AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SATURDAY-MONDAY... GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE 300MB JET
STREAM OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN US INTO THE
WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND MEANDER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG THE JET OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN HIGH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (POPS ~50-70% SATURDAY AND 50-70%
SUNDAY/MONDAY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST
INTO EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS (LOW 80S TO
UPPER 90S) ARE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S ARE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
CURRENTLY-TODAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED (POPS ~ 20-40%) OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 6-14KTS ARE FORECAST. SEAS TO 2-3FT
ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED GENERALLY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (POPS ~ 20-60%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS ~40-60%) SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST ON SATURDAY (POPS 50-70%). THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 34KTS OR
GREATER AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
6-14KTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT
10-18KTS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10-15KTS ON SATURDAY. SEAS TO
2-3FT ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 2-4FT SEAS ARE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FEW SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. HOWEVER, STARTING TO SEE
STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA SO MAY HAVE TO ADD
SOME MVFR CIGS FOR A BIT AT SOME TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA
BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH
STEERING FLOW DIRECTING SOME CONVECTION BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES IN THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. L/V WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING, THEN BECOME SE/ESE AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHES INLAND SLOWLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPEEDS 5-10 KTS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
12-15 KTS ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AGAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 86 68 87 67 / 30 30 60 30
MCO 90 69 90 70 / 50 40 60 30
MLB 86 69 86 69 / 30 20 50 30
VRB 89 68 88 68 / 20 20 30 20
LEE 90 69 90 70 / 40 20 60 20
SFB 90 68 90 69 / 50 40 60 30
ORL 90 70 90 70 / 50 40 60 30
FPR 89 68 88 67 / 20 10 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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