194
FXUS62 KMLB 070041
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
841 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WITH
GREATER COVERAGE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED, WITH DIME SIZE HAIL
REPORTED IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
NORTHWARD TO THE ORLANDO AREA, AS CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION WINDS DOWN. THEN, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE REDUCED POPS OVERALL IN THE FORECAST. CAMS
SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND WILL
COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR CLOSER TO SUNSET NEAR TO JUST WEST OF THE
ORLANDO METRO AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THESE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS THEY SHIFT INLAND, WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE (POPS UP TO 40-60 PERCENT) AS THESE BOUNDARIES
MERGE INLAND. COOL TEMPS ALOFT (AROUND -10 TO -11C AT 500MB), AMPLE
INSTABILITY, AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING INCREASING DCAPE VALUES
(UP TO 800-1100 J/KG) STILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, HAIL UP TO AROUND AN INCH
IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
SLOWER AND MORE VARIABLE STORM MOTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. ACROSS THE WATERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OFFSHORE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR TO JUST
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH INTO FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.8 INCHES. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WAVES OF PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHIFT INLAND AND COLLIDE
OVER THE INTERIOR. GREATEST COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH
AND INLAND OF THE TREASURE COAST EACH DAY, WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET. GREATEST POPS WILL BE UP TO 50-70 PERCENT EACH DAY
ACROSS THIS AREA. TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY ALOFT INTO WEDNESDAY TO AROUND
-9 TO -10C AT 500MB, BUT THEN BEGIN TO COOL AGAIN TO -10 TO -11C
INTO LATE WEEK. THIS MAY LIMIT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT AS TEMPS COOL AND MID LEVEL W/SW WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS MAY INCREASE. EITHER WAY A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-
50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE 300MB JET STREAM OVER THE GULF AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MEANDER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG
THE JET OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OFFSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST INTO EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (POPS UP TO 60-80% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA). THE
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
HIGHS FALLING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES (IN THE 80S), WITH
LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR TO NORTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFTING BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
OVERALL FAVORABLE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND. S/SE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FEET
INTO LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND, AND THEN 5 FOOT SEAS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS
WILL BE THE THREAT OF OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS W/SW
STEERING WINDS INCREASE. SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH AROUND 1-2Z. THEN, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE COATS AND SOUTHWEST NEAR LEE AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA LEADING TO HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. PEAK TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN
20-24Z. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 18Z
NEAR MCO/ISM/SFB. THE TREASURE COAST AND LEE HAVE THE LOWEST
CHANCES FOR SEEING MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS. WINDS 10-12KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 88 68 86 / 20 70 30 60
MCO 71 90 70 90 / 20 60 30 70
MLB 71 86 70 86 / 20 50 30 50
VRB 70 86 69 87 / 20 40 20 40
LEE 71 90 71 89 / 10 70 20 70
SFB 70 91 69 90 / 20 70 20 70
ORL 72 91 71 90 / 20 60 30 70
FPR 70 86 69 87 / 20 30 20 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...LEAHY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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