756
FXUS62 KMLB 071120
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
720 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
- THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE WEEK
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL (5-14%) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
CURRENTLY-TODAY... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WEATHER OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS SITUATED
NEAR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN US COAST WHICH EXTENDS FROM LOW
PRESSURE (~1009MB) OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AMERICA. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY BETWEEN 2PM TO
10PM) OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND CONVERGES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE GREATEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY (MLCAPE
UP TO 1,500-2,000 J/KG) IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
SEBASTIAN TO OKEECHOBEE WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN SHOWER
(POPS ~40-70%) AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POPS ~20-40% FORECAST TO THE EAST).
GENERALLY, WEST MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AT AROUND -10C, MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND RELATIVELY
WEAK BULK SHEAR (~20KTS). HOWEVER WINDS AT 925MB-850MB ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT (~5-10MPH). THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH SLOW
MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2"). RAIN
SHOWER (POPS ~20-50%) AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES DECREASE AFTER
8PM BEFORE ENDING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WPC HAS OUTLOOKED
EASTERN LAKE, VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, EASTERN ORANGE, EASTERN OSCEOLA,
BREVARD, AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL RISK (5-14%)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4+") WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK EAST- SOUTHEAST AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO
20-25MPH TO THE EAST OF THE ORLANDO METRO WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT AROUND 5-10MPH TO THE WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEFORE BECOMING EAST- SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
FORECAST WITH PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
300MB JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN US FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG THE
JET STREAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON THURSDAY WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING MLCAPE UP
TO 2,000-2,500 J/KG, SCP BETWEEN 2-7, EHI BETWEEN 1-2, 0-3KM SRH
AT 200-400 M^2/S^2, AND SHIP BETWEEN 1-2, IN ADDITION TO
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ML LAPSE RATES, 500MB TEMPERATURES AT
-10C, AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST
AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED LAKE, VOLUSIA,
SEMINOLE, AND ORANGE COUNTIES, IN ADDITION TO PORTIONS OF BREVARD
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL RISK (~5-14%) FOR SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, THE WPC HAS
OUTLOOKED EASTERN LAKE, VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, EASTERN ORANGE, EASTERN
OSCEOLA, BREVARD, AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(5-14%) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, IN ADDITION TO AREAS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (GENERALLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY). THE MAIN
HAZARDS FOR A FEW POTENTIAL (5-14% RISK) SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH, LARGE HAIL TO
1" DIAMETER OR GREATER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
(ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4"+). THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (2%)
FOR A TORNADO. A SIMILAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS 40-70%) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS FORECAST WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FORECAST TO DECREASE
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (AMOUNTS UP TO
2-4+"). AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY... GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN US SHIFTING OVER
THE STATE OF FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
MIDSOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AT THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, IN ADDITION
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW
FOR SURE, BUT THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY,
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA BY MONDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S ARE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
CURRENTLY-TODAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WITH A WEAK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED
(POPS ~ 20-60%) GENERALLY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
34KTS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 6-14KTS ARE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
TO 1-3FT ARE FORECAST.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO LATE WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED GENERALLY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (POPS ~ 20-60%) AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POPS ~40-70%) SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (5-14%)
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE BREVARD
AND VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. ISOLATED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY
RAINFALL, IN ADDITION TO A WATERSPOUT ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS, SMALL HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 6-14KTS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-15KTS AND SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15KTS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEAS TO 2-3FT ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND 2-4FT SEAS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT S/SE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
S/SSW FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY AND SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST,
WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SPEEDS 5-10 KTS INLAND/VOLUSIA COAST AND 10- 15 KTS ALONG
THE SPACE & TREASURE COASTS. BOTH E/W COAST SEA BREEZES PUSH
INLAND WITH AN EVENTUAL COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FROM
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY OUTFLOWS WILL PUSH SHOWER/LIGHTNING STORM
COVERAGE TO SCT-NMRS - HIGHEST ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND LOWEST
TOWARD THE TREASURE COAST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH BACK TO
THE EAST COAST, ESP NORTH BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF THE COAST THRU MID EVENING. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDS INVOF CONVECTION. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 66 88 65 / 70 40 60 40
MCO 91 68 91 68 / 70 50 70 40
MLB 86 68 87 68 / 40 30 50 30
VRB 87 68 88 68 / 30 20 40 30
LEE 90 69 90 68 / 70 30 60 30
SFB 91 68 91 67 / 70 40 60 30
ORL 91 69 91 68 / 70 40 60 30
FPR 87 67 88 67 / 20 10 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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