388
FXUS62 KMLB 081109
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
709 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
- DAILY SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING GRADUAL RELIEF TO
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WHILE RAINFALL WILL INITIALLY BE BENEFICIAL, THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ANY
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...CONVECTION WAS KEPT GOING PAST MIDNIGHT, THANKS IN
PART TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSING THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. OTHERWISE, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 60S/70S.
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO SCT-
NMRS (30-70PCT), HIGHEST NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY & THE TREASURE
COAST. STORM STEERING MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST WILL CARRY CONVECTION
BACK TO THE EAST COAST AND OFF OF THE COAST. FORECAST TEMPS AT H500 -
9C TO -10C AND SUBTLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WRLY FLOW WILL AID
CONVECTION. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ENCOMPASSES OSCEOLA-BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD FOR LATER TODAY.
PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS OF 40-55 MPH LOCALLY - CANNOT RULE OUT 1 OR 2 STORMS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH, SMALL TO COIN-SIZE HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS (1-3 INCHES LOCALLY). ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THRU MID
TO LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR
90F TO L90S INTO THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM AND GENERALLY IN
THE M-U60S, AROUND 70F TO L70S ACROSS BARRIER ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN HUMID.
FRI-SAT...A QAUSI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STREWN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTH FL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO POOL NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
FL PENINSULA. DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIMES (EAST/WEST) WITH A MULTITUDE
OF BOUNDARY CONDITIONS LATE EACH DAY/EVENING PROMOTION SCT-NMRS (40-
70PCT) STORM COVERAGE. AGAIN, TROUGHINESS IN THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL AID IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS (MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING) WILL ALL BE IN
PLAY. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) FROM THE WPC WILL
LIKELY CARRY A MARGINAL RISK EACH DAY FOR MUCH OF OUR COVERAGE
WARNING AREA, ESP AS DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS BEGIN TO STACK UP
INCREASING THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS
SOME AREAS RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW/W
STEERING FLOW WILL BE STOUT ENOUGH TO DIRECT CONVECTION BACK TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE EACH EVENING.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE M80S TO L90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M60S TO
L70S.
SUN-WED...MID/UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN LA AND THE NW GULF EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND PILING UP OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA EACH DAY. A
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUE WITH (AT LEAST)
NMRS (60- 70PCT) CONVECTIVE CHANCES. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY WITH AN INCREASING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(FLOODING) THREAT. ON WED, POTENTIAL POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL
DROP POPS (20-40PCT) AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS
AND PRECIP MAY HELP TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE L-U80S. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
TODAY-MON...PERSISTENT, UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A DAILY
SEA BREEZE REGIME AS THE ECSB PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND, THEN LATE DAY
(SCT-NMRS/40-70PCT) SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ON LAND PUSH
BACK TO AND OFF OF THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING STOUT SW/W STORM
STEERING FLOW. AS SUCH, WE ARE EXPECTING SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS (ALMOST DAILY) WITH IMPACTS OF FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 30-50KTS IN PLAY, SMALL TO
COIN-SIZE HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT FORESEEN, BUT WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY
HIGHER INVOF STORMS. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FT, POSSIBLY
BUILDING TO 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE SUN OVERNIGHT/MON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF GROUND FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING,
BUT CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THE TAF TERMINALS. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SCT TSRA FROM
ACTIVE SEA BREEZES START DEVELOPING AFTER 19Z (EARLIEST UP NORTH
NEAR KDAB), BECOMING NUM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR THE
I-4 TERMINALS AROUND 22Z-23Z, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WHILE PUSHING
OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS KEEP TSRA GOING TO 02Z-03Z,
POSSIBLY LATER. SHOULD BE QUIET/VFR OVERNIGHT BY 04Z, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT MORE POCKETS OF GROUND FOG OR LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 67 87 69 / 70 50 70 50
MCO 91 69 88 71 / 70 50 70 50
MLB 88 69 87 71 / 50 40 60 50
VRB 89 69 88 71 / 40 30 50 40
LEE 89 70 88 70 / 70 40 70 40
SFB 91 69 90 70 / 70 50 70 40
ORL 90 70 89 71 / 70 50 70 50
FPR 89 69 88 70 / 30 30 50 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...HALEY
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