000
FXUS62 KMLB 081721
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
121 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
- DAILY SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING GRADUAL RELIEF TO
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WHILE RAINFALL WILL INITIALLY BE BENEFICIAL, THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ANY
AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND WITH THEIR MERGER OVER THE INTERIOR
LATER IN THE DAY/TOWARD SUNSET. GREATEST COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL INITIALLY BE INLAND TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER,
WESTERLY STEERING WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AT 700MB WILL BE ABLE TO
STEER THIS CONVECTION BACK TOWARD THE COAST, ESPECIALLY
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES, UP TO 60-70 PERCENT EXISTS ACROSS OSCEOLA AND
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY COINCIDING WITH THE AREA
OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WHERE A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. MAIN STORM THREATS
WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, HAIL UP TO
1 INCH IN DIAMETER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1-3 INCHES WHICH MAY LEAD TO BRIEF STANDING WATER ISSUES IN
URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...CONVECTION WAS KEPT GOING PAST MIDNIGHT, THANKS IN
PART TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSING THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA. OTHERWISE, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 60S/70S.
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO SCT-
NMRS (30-70PCT), HIGHEST NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY & THE TREASURE
COAST. STORM STEERING MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST WILL CARRY CONVECTION
BACK TO THE EAST COAST AND OFF OF THE COAST. FORECAST TEMPS AT H500 -
9C TO -10C AND SUBTLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WRLY FLOW WILL AID
CONVECTION. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ENCOMPASSES OSCEOLA-BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD FOR LATER TODAY.
PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS OF 40-55 MPH LOCALLY - CANNOT RULE OUT 1 OR 2 STORMS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH, SMALL TO COIN-SIZE HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS (1-3 INCHES LOCALLY). ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THRU MID
TO LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR
90F TO L90S INTO THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM AND GENERALLY IN
THE M-U60S, AROUND 70F TO L70S ACROSS BARRIER ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN HUMID.
FRI-SAT...A QAUSI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STREWN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTH FL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO POOL NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
FL PENINSULA. DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIMES (EAST/WEST) WITH A MULTITUDE
OF BOUNDARY CONDITIONS LATE EACH DAY/EVENING PROMOTION SCT-NMRS (40-
70PCT) STORM COVERAGE. AGAIN, TROUGHINESS IN THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WILL AID IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS (MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING) WILL ALL BE IN
PLAY. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) FROM THE WPC WILL
LIKELY CARRY A MARGINAL RISK EACH DAY FOR MUCH OF OUR COVERAGE
WARNING AREA, ESP AS DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS BEGIN TO STACK UP
INCREASING THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS
SOME AREAS RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW/W
STEERING FLOW WILL BE STOUT ENOUGH TO DIRECT CONVECTION BACK TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE EACH EVENING.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE M80S TO L90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M60S TO
L70S.
SUN-WED...MID/UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN LA AND THE NW GULF EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND PILING UP OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA EACH DAY. A
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUE WITH (AT LEAST)
NMRS (60- 70PCT) CONVECTIVE CHANCES. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY WITH AN INCREASING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(FLOODING) THREAT. ON WED, POTENTIAL POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL
DROP POPS (20-40PCT) AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS
AND PRECIP MAY HELP TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE L-U80S. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
TODAY-MON...PERSISTENT, UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A DAILY
SEA BREEZE REGIME AS THE ECSB PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND, THEN LATE DAY
(SCT-NMRS/40-70PCT) SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ON LAND PUSH
BACK TO AND OFF OF THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING STOUT SW/W STORM
STEERING FLOW. AS SUCH, WE ARE EXPECTING SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS (ALMOST DAILY) WITH IMPACTS OF FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 30-50KTS IN PLAY, SMALL TO
COIN-SIZE HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT FORESEEN, BUT WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY
HIGHER INVOF STORMS. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FT, POSSIBLY
BUILDING TO 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE SUN OVERNIGHT/MON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
MCO IMPACT:
- 50-70% COVERAGE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS 21-01Z.
- 30-40% RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OF 35+KT.
ACTIVE EVENING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER
THE ORLANDO AND DAYTONA AREA TERMINALS. STRONG, ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS, COIN-SIZED HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS. QUIETER OVERNIGHT, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
OVER SIMILAR AREAS LATE FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER WINDS BECOMING ESE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SITES IN THE AFTERNOONS, OTHERWISE SSW
5-12 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 88 69 85 / 60 60 60 70
MCO 70 88 71 87 / 60 70 60 70
MLB 70 87 71 86 / 50 60 60 60
VRB 69 88 70 87 / 30 50 40 50
LEE 70 88 71 86 / 40 70 50 70
SFB 69 90 69 87 / 60 70 60 70
ORL 71 89 71 87 / 60 70 60 70
FPR 69 88 69 87 / 30 50 40 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HEIL
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