619
FXUS62 KMLB 090551
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
151 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING, AND SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
HELP ALLEVIATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS WAS LIMITED ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS
AFTN/EVE AND WHICH LEFT SOUTHERN SECTIONS HIGH AND DRY. IN FACT
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH DID NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN WHILE A FEW
AREAS RECEIVED TOO MUCH. REPEATED STORMS OVER EDGEWATER PRODUCED
2-4 INCHES. THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHING
EVEN THOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS BUBBLING UP OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR WITHIN RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
RAIN AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED, WITH MORE ALONG AND OUT
AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST BREEZE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE GOES-19 TPW IMAGERY SHOWERS GREATER MOISTURE (PW
VALUES 1.6-1.7"). INITIAL FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
THEREFORE OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS ACROSS AND NW OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE STILL FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED
ACROSS OR POSSIBLY JUST EAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGERS ARE MORE LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL THEN TEND TO FOCUS
CONVECTION EASTWARD BACK TOWARD THE COAST OF VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS HAS INCREASED, AND SPC NOW HAS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF ORLANDO, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) EXTENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FL (EXCEPT SOUTHERN
TREASURE COAST). MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES WHICH
MAY LEAD TO BRIEF STANDING WATER ISSUES IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. POPS STILL RANGE UP TO 60-70 PERCENT FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD
NORTHWARD DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE
COAST.
CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE EVENING,
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS NORTH AND
INLAND OF THE TREASURE COAST EACH DAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES UP TO 60-70
PERCENT. W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL PERSIST AND ALSO INCREASE INTO
SATURDAY, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE,
WITH CURRENTLY A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND NORTH OF ORLANDO ON SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL TEND TO COOL ALOFT TO -10 TO -11C AT 500MB ON FRIDAY TO
-11 TO -12C ON SATURDAY, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WINDS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, PRODUCING TOTALS OF 1-3
INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, AND MINOR STANDING WATER IMPACTS
ACROSS URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) MID/UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN LA AND THE NW GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS THRU MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
AND PILING UP OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PENINSULA EACH DAY. A PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
TUE WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FORECAST (UP TO 60-80%). STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY WITH AN INCREASING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (FLOODING) THREAT. ON WED, POTENTIAL POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WILL DROP POPS (30-50PCT) AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. CLOUDS AND PRECIP MAY HELP TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE L-
U80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
TONIGHT-MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH SEA
BREEZE GENERATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING
BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. SOME STORMS MAY POTENTIALLY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 KNOTS,
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, S/SE WINDS
WILL LARGELY PERSIST WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS,
BUT MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FT, POSSIBLY BUILDING TO
5 FT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SCT-NUM TSRA IMPACTING MOST ECFL
TERMINALS. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. ECSB DEVELOPS BETWEEN 17Z-19Z,
SHIFTING WINDS ESE AT 10-15 KTS AND DEVELOPING INITIAL TSRA AS IT
MOVES INLAND. GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KMLB-KSUA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
SEA BREEZES COLLIDE INVOF OF KMCO/KISM/KSFB AROUND 22Z-23Z,
TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL NEARLY STATIONARY TSRA, SOME CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS, COIN-SIZED HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 06Z.
HELD OFF TEMPOS FOR TSRA IMPACTS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BULK OF TSRA TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ORLANDO AREA TERMINALS,
AND ALSO POSSIBLY REACHING THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 69 86 70 / 60 50 70 60
MCO 89 71 87 72 / 70 50 70 50
MLB 87 71 86 73 / 60 50 60 50
VRB 88 71 88 73 / 50 40 50 40
LEE 88 71 87 71 / 70 40 70 50
SFB 90 70 89 71 / 70 50 70 50
ORL 90 71 88 72 / 70 50 70 50
FPR 88 70 88 72 / 50 30 50 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...KELLY
AVIATION...HALEY
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