527
FXUS62 KMLB 090747
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
- A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. MAIN THREATS ARE
WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH, COIN SIZE HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND A BRIEF TORNADO.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES AND
SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
- ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
HELP ALLEVIATE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY, WITH A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS APPROACHING 2" BY THE AFTERNOON) AND A
ROBUST SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY. POPS 50-70%, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TREASURE COAST, WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS FARTHER INLAND. PEAK TIMING OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 5-9 PM. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GENERATED BY 0-3KM LAPSE
RATES 7.5-8 C/KM, BULK SHEAR 35-40 KTS, AND DCAPE VALUES 900-1100
J/KG. IN ADDITION, 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL, THOUGH NOT
UNSEASONABLE, AROUND -10 TO -11C. THUS, GUSTY WINDS AND COIN SIZE
HAIL LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
50-60 MPH. HOWEVER, A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HELP PROVIDE RELIEF FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
THOUGH MAY LEAD TO MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG
THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON, INCREASING FROM 5-10 MPH TO 10-15
MPH. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GENERATED BY
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN, POPS 30-50% WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL US, GENERATING A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL GULF. GENERALLY
RINSE A REPEAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS LEADING TO POPS 50-70%. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-10
TO -12 C) AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS PRODUCING DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BACKING SOUTHEASTERLY
ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FURTHER INCREASES TO 80% AREA-WIDE ON
MONDAY, AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS IN SOGGY PWATS UP TO 2.1" INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY HAS LEAD TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK
(1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT
INCREASES TO A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) MONDAY, DUE TO THE AMPLE
MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE WELCOME FOR ADDITIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF,
THOUGH WILL INCREASE THE MINOR FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EACH DAY FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID-80S MONDAY, DUE TO
HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MID-
WEEK, ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND REDUCING SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES. POPS 60-80% LINGER TUESDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, BEFORE DECREASING TO 20-30% BY THURSDAY. "COOLER"
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID-80S CONTINUE TUESDAY, BEFORE A
WARMING TREND RETURNS AND HIGHS INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO EVEN LOWER 90S LATE WEEK. HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE OFFSHORE-MOVING STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 KTS, LARGE HAIL, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS WILL BACK SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOONS, AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS 3-4 FT.
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
MAINLY OFFSHORE, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SCT-NUM TSRA IMPACTING MOST ECFL
TERMINALS. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. ECSB DEVELOPS BETWEEN 17Z-19Z,
SHIFTING WINDS ESE AT 10-15 KTS AND DEVELOPING INITIAL TSRA AS IT
MOVES INLAND. GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KMLB-KSUA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
SEA BREEZES COLLIDE INVOF OF KMCO/KISM/KSFB AROUND 22Z-23Z,
TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL NEARLY STATIONARY TSRA, SOME CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS, COIN-SIZED HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 06Z.
HELD OFF TEMPOS FOR TSRA IMPACTS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BULK OF TSRA TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ORLANDO AREA TERMINALS,
AND ALSO POSSIBLY REACHING THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 69 86 70 / 60 50 70 60
MCO 89 71 87 72 / 70 50 70 50
MLB 87 71 86 73 / 60 50 60 50
VRB 88 71 88 73 / 50 40 50 40
LEE 88 71 87 71 / 70 40 70 50
SFB 90 70 89 71 / 70 50 70 50
ORL 90 71 88 72 / 70 50 70 50
FPR 88 70 88 72 / 50 30 50 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HALEY
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