378
FXUS62 KMLB 101321
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
921 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE RISK FOR SOME FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INCREASES BY
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING HOT
LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED BENEATH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. XMR SOUNDING ANALYSIS (10Z) HAS INDICATED A DRIER
AIRMASS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BETWEEN 700-500MB. HOWEVER, A
GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LAYER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. INITIAL FOCUS
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA,
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MID TO LATE DAY.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE LOCALLY, LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE
FROM TITUSVILLE TO LAKE MARIAN (50-70%), PEAKING NEAR SUNSET.
FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE REMAINS MORE WIDELY SCATTERED (20-50%).
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 8-9 PM WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER
INTO LATE EVENING. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INCLUDE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES,
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, AND COIN-SIZED HAIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, REMAINING
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME GUSTY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 15-20
MPH. ELSEWHERE, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...STACKED LOW PRESSURE NEAR LOUISIANA/EASTERN TEXAS
WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE TODAY, MAINTAINING A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN BACK SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. THE NBM HAS A KNOWN BIAS
TOWARDS LOW WIND SPEEDS AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SPACE COAST
SOUTHWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS, HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS CONSSHORT
FOR THE WIND FORECAST TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY BETWEEN 4-6 PM. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
5-10 MPH THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
A SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-4 (50-70%) AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
(20-40%), AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES FARTHER INLAND THERE. PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND COIN SIZE HAIL AGAIN. ALTHOUGH,
DCAPE LOOKS TO BE LOWER (700-900 J/KG) TODAY THAN FRIDAY. BY
CONTRAST, 500MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -12 TO -13C WILL SUPPORT
LARGER HAIL. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
THROUGH THE DAY, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT IN HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THIS LEVEL (HENCE THE LOWER DCAPE VALUES). REGARDLESS, 500MB
TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -11C DURING THE TIME OF PEAK CONVECTION
(5-10 PM) WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR AT LEAST QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SHOWERS GENERATED BY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY LINGER AS
LATE AS AROUND 2 AM OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RINSE AND
REPEAT OVERALL FOR SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING A SEA
BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. SUFFICIENT 0-3KM LAPSE RATES
(7-8 C/KM), DCAPE 700-900 J/KG, AND EBWD NEAR 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE (60 MPH) WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN
A THREAT, THOUGH WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (-8 TO -9C) MAY
LIMIT HAIL SIZE COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE (50-70%) WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR, WHILE THE INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE KEEPS CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD LOWER (30-40%). HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE
FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PWATS SURGING TO AROUND 2",
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA BY SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH 800MB. POPS
70-90% MONDAY, THEN 50-70% TUESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING FLOODING
RAINFALL THREAT. WHILE RAIN IS WELCOME AFTER THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THIS SPRING, REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO (90TH
PERCENTILE) RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5" THROUGH TUESDAY COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER, WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HAVE
A MARGINAL RISK (1/4). A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ON MONDAY, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID-80S, THANKS TO
HIGH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF
INTO LATE WEEK, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONABLE POPS OVER LAND
AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE LOCAL
REGION. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY, THEN LOWER TO MID-90S INTO THE
WEEKEND. THESE WILL BE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO
FAR. HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WILL INCREASE THE
HEAT RISK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE INTO THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THIS AREA. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING GENERALLY NORTH OF MELBOURNE. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL, AS WELL AS DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEAS 3-4 FT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BUT, BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS (POSSIBLE
APPROACHING 20 KTS WELL OFFSHORE) AND BUILD SEAS TO UP TO 5 FT.
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MID WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST, WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OR
LESS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
A SCT-BKN 030-035 CEILING HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING, AND MAY NEED TO SEND THE 12Z TAFS OUT WITH SOME
SHORT-FUSED TEMPOS FOR MVFR CIGS. SHOULD LIFT/BREAK UP BY AROUND
14Z. TEMPOS FOR TSRA HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MODERATE, AND ERRED ON THE EARLIER SIDE OF
IMPACT ONSET. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
FLOW BECOMES MORE S-SSE TODAY, WHICH ALLOWS THE ECSB TO DEVELOP A
LITTLE QUICKER, AS EARLY AS 15Z-16Z AT KVRB-KSUA, AND ENHANCES SE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
EXPECT A COLLISION AT AROUND 22Z-23Z FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, NEAR KLEE AND WEST OF THE ORLANDO TERMINALS, FIRING OFF SCT-
NUM TSRA THAT GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS KEEP TSRA/SHRA GOING AS
LATE AS 05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING OFFSHORE. LOWER CHANCES
FOR SEVERE TS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER TS FINISH FOR THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 71 86 71 / 70 50 60 60
MCO 89 72 87 72 / 70 50 70 60
MLB 87 73 85 74 / 40 40 40 50
VRB 88 73 87 73 / 30 20 30 40
LEE 88 72 87 72 / 70 50 70 60
SFB 90 71 88 72 / 70 40 70 60
ORL 90 72 87 72 / 70 50 70 60
FPR 88 72 87 73 / 30 20 30 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...LAW
AVIATION...HALEY
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