697
FXUS62 KMLB 110529
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
129 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE RISK FOR SOME FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INCREASES BY
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY MID WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING HOT
LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, THE
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER THE
THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE KMLB RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PUSHING OFF THE VOLUSIA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING, AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS WEST FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 PM ARE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10
MPH. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT, A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK, WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANCES (LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES TO 20-30 PERCENT) THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CHANGES IN THE MODELS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS APPROACHING
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. KMLB RADAR SHOWS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE STEADILY MOVING INLAND, ALREADY REACHING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SEMINOLE, ORANGE, OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTIES. THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL COLLIDE WITH
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS. STEERING FLOW SHOULD
THEN DIRECT STORM ACTIVITY NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-4 (60-70%) THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE LIMITING OVERALL SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES ALONG THE TREASURE COAST (10-30%). PRIMARY STORM
THREATS INCLUDE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45-55 MPH, COIN-SIZED HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH OF DIAMETER. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER,
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. ALOFT, A 250MB JET
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BUILDING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE JET SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
THERE IS SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITHIN MESOSCALE MODELS, SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY FAVOR CONVECTION FIRST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD, THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A
PERSISTENT DIURNAL PATTERN. THIS FAVORS HIGH COVERAGE (60-70%) OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT. PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
ANY STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, COIN-SIZED HAIL,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)... LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF LIFTS NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT (60-80%).
PWATS SURGING TO AROUND 2", WILL THEN SUPPORT HIGH POPS 80-90%
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY. COVERAGE GRADUALLY DWINDLES ACROSS THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY (40-50%), WHILE HIGH COVERAGE LINGERS ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY (60-80%). AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING FLOODING RAINFALL
THREAT. WHILE RAIN IS WELCOME AFTER THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THIS
SPRING, REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO (90TH PERCENTILE) RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3-5" THROUGH TUESDAY COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. A SLIGHT
RISK (2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST, WHILE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (1/4). A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ON MONDAY, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID-80S, THANKS TO
HIGH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE GULF INTO LATE WEEK, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONABLE POPS OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE LOCAL REGION. THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY,
THEN LOWER TO MID-90S INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE WILL BE THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S WILL INCREASE THE HEAT RISK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING GENERALLY NORTH OF MELBOURNE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 KTS AND LARGE
HAIL, AS WELL AS DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEAS 3-4 FT.
SUNDAY-LATE WEEK (PREVIOUS)...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. BUT, BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS (POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 KTS WELL OFFSHORE) AND BUILD
SEAS TO UP TO 5 FT. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MID WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST, WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OR
LESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH 15-20KTS ALONG THE COAST, AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. GUSTS 20-30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST FROM KMLB SOUTHWARD. A BIT OF
A MORE UNCERTAIN TIMING FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF KISM/KMCO, THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FROM 20-1Z THERE.
TEMPOS FOR KSFB/KDAB/KLEE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
THEN, SHOWERS (-SHRA) LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TIMING OF THIS FRONT REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD FOR THIS AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 71 82 67 / 50 70 80 60
MCO 87 72 81 69 / 70 70 80 60
MLB 85 74 83 70 / 40 60 80 80
VRB 86 74 85 69 / 30 60 80 80
LEE 84 71 81 69 / 70 80 80 40
SFB 87 71 82 68 / 60 70 80 60
ORL 87 72 82 70 / 70 70 80 60
FPR 86 73 85 69 / 30 60 80 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WATSON
AVIATION...LEAHY
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