804
FXUS62 KMLB 121103
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
703 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 50-70%) FOCUSED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUNSET.
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F.
- A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
TODAY-FRIDAY...WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR TO JUST NORTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE A
RELATIVELY LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. PW
VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES TODAY, AND DECREASE TO 1.6-1.8
INCHES ON FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN EARLY
DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE
TO PUSH WELL INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GREATEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOCUSING INLAND AND TOWARD THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FL
PENINSULA WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE FAVORED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE AROUND 50% ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY AND FOR INLAND AREAS WILL
RANGE FROM 60-70% THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND 50-60% ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST
SHOULD LOWER COVERAGE SLIGHTLY.
A LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE, AGAIN MAINLY
INLAND, WITH MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT. WEAK
STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE S/SE MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3" LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER
ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-
105F.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WEST ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS
THE REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT, A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EXTENDED ACROSS FLORIDA. PW VALUES INTO THE WEEKEND REMAIN
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER AIR TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL S/SE FLOW WILL ALLOW
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS FAVORED NEAR TO NW OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED INLAND. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-50% ALONG THE
COAST UP TO 40-60% INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY/MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP THREAT FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS LOW, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH AS DRIER AIR ALOFT LINGERS.
ADDITIONAL STORM THREATS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO CONTINUE.
TEMPS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-
105F. INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB AS SEA BREEZE WON'T BE ABLE TO MOVE AS QUICKLY
INLAND AND STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER. HIGHS GRADUALLY RISE
TO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES 102-107F.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
TODAY-MONDAY...WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR TO JUST NORTH
OF THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE STARTING TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD AND BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP BOATING CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH S/SE WINDS PREVAILING AND WIND SPEEDS LARGELY
REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 2-3
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THAT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE N/NW, WITH SOME
STORMS POTENTIALLY PUSHING ONSHORE. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM VRB SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE ECSB IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INLAND, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. VCTS AFTER 16Z ALONG THE COAST
AND AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. ADDED TEMPOS FOR
REDUCED VIS AND CIG DUE TO TSRA AT THE INLAND TERMINALS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 19-23Z, WHICH IS WHEN THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR. ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHES, WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AFTER 20Z ALONG THE COAST AND AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY WILL
BE POSSIBLE, SO KEPT VCSH THROUGH 03Z AT LEE. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, THERE ARE NO VIS OR CIG CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 89 74 90 74 / 50 30 50 20
MCO 91 74 92 75 / 60 30 60 20
MLB 88 76 88 76 / 50 20 50 20
VRB 89 75 90 75 / 50 20 50 20
LEE 92 75 92 75 / 70 40 60 40
SFB 92 74 93 75 / 60 30 50 20
ORL 92 75 92 76 / 60 30 60 20
FPR 89 74 89 75 / 50 20 50 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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