247
FXUS62 KMLB 122352
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
752 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 40-60%) FOCUSED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUNSET.
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F.
- A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
REST OF TODAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF I-95 AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INTO THE
INTERIOR. CAMS ARE RUNNING A BIT BEHIND, BUT SUPPORT THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES INLAND, WITH A
COLLISION NEAR TO JUST WEST OF LEESBURG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS SAMPLED BY THE 15Z
XMR SOUNDING HAVE LED TO OBSERVED DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG
AGAIN. WHILE WARM 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -6.5C WILL SOMEWHAT
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO, CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH, AS WELL AS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY 10 PM, WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE TREASURE COAST, WHERE CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD
PUSH A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY,
THOUGH BEGINS ITS SLOW JOURNEY SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NEAR THE PENINSULA. SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE, STRENGTHENING TO 10-15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. POPS 40-50% FOR
FRIDAY, BEGINNING IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST,
AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DRIFT ONSHORE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH INTO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER,
BY THEN, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE ITSELF. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE THIS FEATURE DRIFT INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A COLLISION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA BY THE EVENING. DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE MID-
LEVELS MAY FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTION OVERALL. ALTHOUGH, SHOULD A
STORM TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DCAPE ~1000 J/KG, COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S.
SATURDAY-THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE ITSELF DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE
RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGING (ESPECIALLY IN THE
MID-LEVELS) IS NOW FORECAST TO KEEP MUCH OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL) SOUTH AND WEST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER, DRYING IS
STILL FORECAST THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH PWATS FALLING NEAR OR
BELOW 1.5-1.6", ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGING, WARM 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF ~-6 TO -5C, AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW, POPS ARE FORECAST AT AROUND 30-50% THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
MAY EVEN BE A BIT GENEROUS, PARTICULARLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS TREND
LOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SHOULD THIS PATTERN HOLD, THOUGH
HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW. WHILE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS LOW,
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS
TO 40-50 MPH AS DRIER AIR ALOFT LINGERS. ADDITIONAL STORM THREATS
OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE.
LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING HEAT CONCERNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CREEP
UP ONE TO TWO DEGREES EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY TO THURSDAY, REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID-90S BY LATE WEEK. A FEW SITES COULD APPROACH THE
UPPER 90S THURSDAY OVER THE INTERIOR. DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO
MODERATE HUMID CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT; HOWEVER, APPARENT TEMPERATURES
OF 100-105 LOOK TO CONTINUE. SHOULD THE POP OR SKY COVER FORECAST
DECREASE FURTHER, COULD SEE HEAT INDICES APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND, THEN REMAIN NEAR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THUS, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW LOOKS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE COAST IN THE LATE MORNING EACH DAY
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WHILE OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY ONSHORE FLOW, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 2-3 FT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025
SHOWER AND STORM IMPACTS HAVE ENDED AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/03Z, BECOMING
AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
LATE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VCTS IS INCLUDED AT
INTERIOR TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
TOMORROW, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING STORM DEVELOPMENT
TO FOCUSED WEST OF THE LOCAL TREASURE COAST TERMINALS. VFR
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 89 74 90 / 10 40 20 40
MCO 74 92 75 92 / 20 50 20 50
MLB 76 89 76 89 / 10 40 10 40
VRB 75 89 75 90 / 10 40 20 30
LEE 75 92 76 92 / 20 50 40 50
SFB 74 92 75 92 / 20 40 20 50
ORL 76 92 76 92 / 20 50 20 50
FPR 74 89 75 89 / 10 40 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...LAW
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