844
FXUS62 KMLB 131750
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
150 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FOCUSING
INLAND, WEST OF I-95.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THEN WARMING TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
TODAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL S/SE FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA, AS
RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC SHIFTS GRADUALLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH TOMORROW. ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO EARLIER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER INLAND MOVEMENT OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH DAY. THIS WILL FOCUS GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND, WEST OF I-95, WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WHILE PW VALUES
LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.7-1.9", MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL ALSO ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST, WITH RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM AROUND 30-40 PERCENT ALONG
THE COAST AND 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH
SEA BREEZE COLLISION THAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST NW OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR LATE EACH DAY. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING
EXTENDED ACROSS FLORIDA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE,
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
GENERALLY FORECAST, WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING TO BE FOCUSED INLAND, WEST OF I-95, WHERE SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY. LINGERING DRY
AIR ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH DAY, WITH
MAIN THREATS CONTINUING TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOT CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS STILL IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON SUNDAY, INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S
MON-THU. SOME DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA SHOULD OFFSET THE
INCREASE IN TEMPS, KEEPING PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105F.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
TODAY-TUESDAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST ATLANTIC INITIALLY NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY, SETTLES BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS,
WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW 15 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS AS WELL, AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 2-3
FEET.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND WILL
FOCUS INLAND EACH DAY, LIMITING THE THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING
HOURS, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BEING ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
OBSERVED WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND. VCTS IS INCLUDED ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPOS AT MCO/ISM/SFB WHERE CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
TSRA IMPACTS IS HIGHEST. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR INTO THE EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST FROM MLB
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS.
ELSEWHERE, EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AROUND 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 90 74 90 / 20 40 20 50
MCO 75 93 75 92 / 30 50 30 50
MLB 76 89 76 89 / 20 30 20 30
VRB 75 90 75 90 / 20 30 20 20
LEE 76 92 75 92 / 40 50 40 50
SFB 75 93 75 92 / 30 50 30 50
ORL 76 93 76 92 / 30 50 30 50
FPR 74 89 74 89 / 20 30 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...LAW
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