821
FXUS62 KMLB 132311
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
711 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FOCUSING
INLAND, WEST OF I-95.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THEN WARMING TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
REST OF TODAY-SATURDAY...LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AROUND THIS TIME. THIS
MAKES SENSE, GIVEN THAT THE XMR 15Z SOUNDING FOUND DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A PWAT OF ONLY 1.64". WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -6 C ARE ALSO NOT SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER
COVERAGE. REGARDLESS, CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BREEZE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND,
WITH A COLLISION OCCURRING NEAR TO WEST OF LEESBURG INTO THIS
EVENING. STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS, THOUGH DRIER AIR COULD CAUSE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH, SHOULD A STORM BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 10 PM. HOWEVER,
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
TOWARDS MORNING, OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONSHORE EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S.
RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH THE COLUMN SATURDAY, AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER
DAY OF ONSHORE FLOW, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASING TO 10-15
MPH BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS IS FORECAST, WITH A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. THEN, COVERAGE EXPANDS INLAND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE, WITH A COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR KEEPING CONVECTION
ONGOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE MID- LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REPEL MOST OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL), DRY AIR LOOKS TO LINGER
IN THE MID- LEVELS, LEADING TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS. POPS 30-40% ALONG THE COAST AND 40-50% OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME WARM 500MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR -6C. HOT JUNE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID-90S CONTINUE,
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S.
SUNDAY-FRIDAY (PREVIOUS)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH RIDGE ALOFT
REMAINING EXTENDED ACROSS FLORIDA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS MID
LEVEL RIDGE, WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE STILL GENERALLY FORECAST, WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO BE FOCUSED INLAND, WEST OF I-95,
WHERE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.
LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
EACH DAY, WITH MAIN THREATS CONTINUING TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOT CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS STILL IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON SUNDAY, INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S
MON-THU. SOME DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA SHOULD OFFSET THE
INCREASE IN TEMPS, KEEPING PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105F.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 10-15 KTS,
INCREASING LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT OFFSHORE-MOVING
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN
STORM THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS. SEAS 2-3 FT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
LOWER THAN NORMAL STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HR.
FEW SHOWERS LINGER AROUND THE GREATER ORLANDO TERMINALS THROUGH
3-4Z THEN QUIET OVERNIGHT. VCTS AGAIN FOR MCO TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR A TEMPO AT THIS POINT. SE WINDS 5-15
KT, FEW GUSTS 20-25 KT AT THE COASTAL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 90 74 90 / 20 40 20 50
MCO 75 93 75 92 / 30 40 30 50
MLB 76 89 76 89 / 10 30 20 30
VRB 75 90 75 90 / 10 30 20 20
LEE 76 92 75 92 / 40 50 40 50
SFB 75 93 75 92 / 30 40 30 50
ORL 76 93 76 92 / 30 40 30 50
FPR 74 89 74 89 / 10 30 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HEIL
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