754
FXUS62 KMLB 141050
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
650 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025
- STORM COVERAGE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND PEAK
HEAT INDICES UP TO 100-105F.
- A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025
TODAY-SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND, WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.7-
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, FALLING SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SUNDAY, AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A DEGREE, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FOCUSED INLAND,
ESPECIALLY NEAR TO NW OF I-4 WHERE LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE
FAVORED. POPS EACH DAY RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST TO
40-50 PERCENT INLAND.
LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT AND DCAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG WILL
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY WITH SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLOW STORM MOTION, GENERALLY TOWARD THE N/NW.
THIS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND
1-3 INCHES, LEADING TO TEMPORARY MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH UP TO 100-105F EACH AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN
MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND MID-
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK,
WITH PW VALUES DECREASING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN LOWER THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS DRIER AIR, WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP STORM COVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL STILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE CONTINUING TO BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE OVERALL TREND OF DECREASING STORM COVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW THE HEAT TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. HIGHS IN THE MID
90S WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST. PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 100-105F
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT PATTERN
IN PLACE WITH S/SE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WATERS, GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS, AND KEEPING SEAS 2-3 FEET. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD, FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE WILL ALSO BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING BACK TOWARD THE COAST, WHICH WILL KEEP
POTENTIAL OF OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS LOW. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS, PUSHING
N/NW. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST,
SOUTH OF THE CAPE, MAINLY LATE IN THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2025
MOSTLY DRY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH VCTS/VCSH PICKING UP AFTER 19Z
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AS THE ECSB MOVES INLAND. ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z, THOUGH SOME LINGERING VCSH
CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEE. PREVAILING SSE
FLOW BECOMING MORE SE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS BECOMING SSE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 50 20
MCO 93 76 94 76 / 50 30 50 20
MLB 89 76 89 76 / 30 10 30 20
VRB 90 74 90 74 / 30 10 30 20
LEE 92 76 91 76 / 50 40 50 30
SFB 93 75 94 75 / 50 30 50 20
ORL 94 76 94 76 / 50 30 50 20
FPR 90 74 89 73 / 30 20 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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