116
FXUS62 KMLB 151102
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
702 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH
GREATEST CHANCES FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
- PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK. THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR HEATRISK EXISTS LATER
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY AROUND GREATER ORLANDO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING EXTENDED ACROSS
THE AREA COUPLED WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PERSIST AT THE SURFACE, BECOMING A
BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. CAM GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL ATTEMPT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
1.7-1.9 INCH PWATS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH INCREASING SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL ACT TO TRY AND SUPPRESS ACTIVITY, SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WHILE NOT EVERYWHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SEE SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUES TO
BE FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR AND IS ALSO WHERE THE
GREATEST MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE.
STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY HELP ENHANCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITH
800-1000 J/KG OF DCAPE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT WARMER
500 MB TEMPERATURES (APPROXIMATELY -6C) AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ACT TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY LEAD TO SLOW STORM
MOTION, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A RESULT, MINOR,
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WHILE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES
IN THE 100 TO 103 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
MEANING THAT HEAT STRESS IS A CONCERN FOR THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED
PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS, ESPECIALLY FOR GROUPS TYPICALLY SENSITIVE
TO HEAT. ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE
OR AN AIR CONDITIONED BUILDING WILL HELP TO MITIGATE HEAT STRESS.
LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT, WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY. IF HEADING
TO THE BEACH, BE SURE TO ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD, HEED THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH SAFETY OFFICIALS AND POSTED FLAGS, AND NEVER
ENTER THE OCEAN ALONE.
MONDAY-SATURDAY...HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, THERE IS MINIMAL
CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO
STAY OVER FLORIDA, WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME DRIER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHEAST, HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
GREATER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COMBINED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL ALLOW FOR A 40 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON, THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER SCATTERED. LATE WEEK, SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND THEREFORE, INCREASING
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA,
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE. A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING EACH DAY. WINDS PICK UP EACH AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHTER AND EVEN VARIABLE AT
TIMES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SEAS REMAINING
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT (20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GREATEST
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST ALONG THE WEST OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHERE THE SEA
BREEZED COLLISION IS FAVORED. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR 3SM TSRA FOR
INLAND TAF SITES AROUND 21-24Z AND 18-21Z AT KDAB. OTHERWISE,
HAVE LEFT VCTS FROM AROUND 16-21Z FROM KTIX SOUTHWARD, AS
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE WEST OF THESE SITES AS SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 74 91 74 / 60 30 50 20
MCO 92 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 30
MLB 90 75 89 75 / 40 20 30 20
VRB 90 74 90 74 / 30 10 30 10
LEE 91 75 92 75 / 60 30 60 30
SFB 92 75 94 75 / 50 30 60 30
ORL 92 76 93 76 / 50 30 60 30
FPR 89 73 89 73 / 30 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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