915
FXUS62 KMLB 152338
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
738 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK, WITH
SOME INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK. THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR HEATRISK EXISTS MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AROUND GREATER ORLANDO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
MONDAY-SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER FLORIDA, AND
EVEN BUILD A LITTLE STRONGER BY WED. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SUPPRESSION ALOFT, WILL HELP TO LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. GREATER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL
ALLOW FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATE WEEK, THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN SLIGHTLY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASING IN RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA,
AND RAIN CHANCES LOWERING, TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO WARM
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE. A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING EACH
DAY. WINDS PICK UP EACH AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHTER AND EVEN VARIABLE AT TIMES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3
FEET. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT (20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING, MAINLY WEST OF MCO. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 01Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 5-8KT BY MID-
MORNING. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON, INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25KT. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OCCURRING ACROSS WEST FL WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR DAB
AND TIX STARTING AT 18Z (HAVE LEFT MLB- VRB- FPR-SUA DRY FOR NOW
AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE), FROM MCO- SFB-
ISM STARTING AT 20Z, AND LEE STARTING AT 22Z. TEMPOS HAVE NOT BEEN
ADDED AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY BE ADDED DURING LATER TAF PACKAGES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 91 74 92 / 30 50 20 40
MCO 75 93 75 94 / 30 60 30 40
MLB 76 90 76 90 / 10 40 10 30
VRB 74 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 20
LEE 75 91 76 94 / 30 60 30 40
SFB 75 93 75 95 / 30 60 20 40
ORL 76 93 76 94 / 30 60 30 40
FPR 72 89 73 90 / 10 30 10 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...WATSON
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