837
FXUS62 KMLB 160553
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK, WITH
SOME INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK. THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR HEATRISK EXISTS MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AROUND GREATER ORLANDO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
MONDAY-SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER FLORIDA, AND
EVEN BUILD A LITTLE STRONGER BY WED. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SUPPRESSION ALOFT, WILL HELP TO LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. GREATER MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL
ALLOW FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. LATE WEEK, THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN SLIGHTLY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASING IN RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA,
AND RAIN CHANCES LOWERING, TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO WARM
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE. A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2025
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING EACH
DAY. WINDS PICK UP EACH AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHTER AND EVEN VARIABLE AT TIMES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3
FEET. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT (20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LARGELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PATTERN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST, NORTH OF THE CAPE, AND INLAND. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION, WHICH WILL AGAIN BE NEAR OR NW OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 22Z-02Z. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS MENTIONED
FOR KDAB FROM 18Z-00Z, FROM 20-01Z AT KSFB/KMCO/KISM AND 22-02Z
AT KLEE. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL FROM KMLB-KSUA AND
THEREFORE HAVE NO MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT THESE SITES, BUT MAY
SEE A SHOWER OR TWO SNEAK ONSHORE NEAR KSUA IN THE EARLY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING E/SE BEHIND
THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-22 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 74 92 74 / 50 30 30 10
MCO 94 75 95 75 / 40 30 40 20
MLB 89 75 90 76 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 91 74 91 74 / 10 10 20 10
LEE 92 75 94 76 / 50 40 40 20
SFB 93 75 94 75 / 50 30 40 10
ORL 93 76 94 76 / 50 30 40 20
FPR 89 72 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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