293
FXUS62 KMLB 170540
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025
- LOWER RAIN/STORM CHANCES TUE-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
INTERIOR.
- MODERATE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES 100-105 AND A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK. MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST FOR THE
GREATER ORLANDO AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025
THRU TONIGHT...FOCUS FOR AFTN STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR SECTIONS WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE RESIDES (PWATS
CLOSE TO 2") AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL OCCUR.
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP
MOST DRY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. CONVECTION WILL
LINGER A LITTLE PAST SUNSET ACROSS THE NORTH THEN ONCE THE
INSTABILITY IS WORKED OVER, A QUIET LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS
FORECAST.
TUESDAY-SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND EVEN BUILD A LITTLE
STRONGER BY WED. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT ON FRI ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE ATLC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN MID WEEK AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO
30% WED AND 30-40% WED AND THESE POPS MAY BE GENEROUS. THE LOWER
RAIN/STORM COVERAGE WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S INTERIOR AND AROUND 90 COAST. THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN CHECK SO HUMIDITY, WHILE PRESENT, WILL BE MODERATE.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT
INDICES 100-105. WHILE THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(>=108), WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK IS FORECAST WITH MAJOR
HEATRISK ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AREA.
A BUMP IN RAIN CHANCES MAY COME FRIDAY WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGING ALOFT. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR WITH 50-60% POPS DECREASING TO 30% ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST. THIS WEEKEND, THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SW ATLC REBUILDS JUST TO OUR NORTH, NEAR 30N LAT, WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A PERSISTENT E/SE FLOW. HAVE KEPT POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
(30-50%) THIS WEEKEND. THIS FLOW PATTERN FAVORS OVERNIGHT/MORNING
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST SPREADING INLAND QUICKLY WITH A DIFFUSE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA, LEADING TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.
SOUTH WIND 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST BEHIND THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 2 FT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY (20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE) IS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
VFR TO PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SSE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THRU 14Z (VARIABLE AT TIMES) BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING
ESE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AFTER 16Z-18Z. GUSTS AROUND 20-25
KT ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. VCTS WAS
PRESERVED FOR INLAND TERMINALS AFTER 20Z, ONLY SLIGHTLY DELAYED
BY ~1 HR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR TEMPOS.
GRADUAL CLEARING IS FORECAST AFTER 03Z WED. WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WIND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 74 91 74 / 20 10 30 10
MCO 95 76 94 75 / 30 20 40 10
MLB 90 76 89 76 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 91 74 91 74 / 20 10 20 10
LEE 93 76 94 76 / 30 30 40 20
SFB 95 76 94 75 / 20 20 30 10
ORL 95 76 94 76 / 30 20 40 10
FPR 90 73 89 73 / 20 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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