436
FXUS62 KMLB 171749
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
149 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, LIMITING RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
INCREASE INTO FRIDAY DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE, BUT FALL ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST AFTERNOONS, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105. HEAT STRESS CONTINUES
TO BE A CONCERN, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK AND MAJOR
HEATRISK FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP
LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY,
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS BUILT ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY AS A RESULT OF THIS SET-UP, BUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL
CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THE
EVENTUAL SEA BREEZE COLLISION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW, SO ONLY HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. IF ANY STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP WOULD DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
WITH THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND THE DRIER AIR PRESENT, HEAT REMAINS
A CONCERN FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE
FORECAST, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WHILE THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP LIMIT HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY, IT MAY STILL
FEEL MUGGY AT TIMES. PEAK HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
100 TO 105, AND A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS ANTICIPATED. STAYING
WELL-HYDRATED AND TAKING BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR IN AN AIR
CONDITIONED BUILDING ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED IF SPENDING EXTENDED
PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS. THOSE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT
OR THOSE NOT ACCLIMATED TO FLORIDA HEAT MAY BE AT A HIGHER RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESS. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT REMAIN WARM
AND MUGGY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY-MONDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY, ERODES INTO FRIDAY, AND IS REPLACED BY A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, THE ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE, WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. POCKETS
OF DRY AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH A MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD, KEEPING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 TO
50 PERCENT, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG THE COAST. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS OCCURS ON FRIDAY AS INCREASING MOISTURE LOCALLY IS ANTICIPATED
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ERODES, WITH A RETURN OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEAT
INDICES REACHING 100 TO 105. WHILE THESE HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ADEQUATE COOLING
AND HYDRATION WILL BE KEY IN AVOIDING ANY HEAT STRESS FOR RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ALIKE IF SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS.
LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON
AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET. WHILE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING ISO
SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE ORLANDO AREA TERMINALS. THE SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED, SHIFTING WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS TO THE ESE-SE AT
10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT KMLB-KSUA. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
FAVORS A SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR KLEE AND WEST OF THE ORLANDO
TERMINALS AROUND 23Z-00Z. SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 21Z
(18Z AT KDAB) ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (SUCH AS THEY ARE AT 20-30 PCT) ALONG THE
COLLISION. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 02Z OR SO. OVERNIGHT WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT SSE-SE,
BECOMING VRB AT TIMES. RINSE AND REPEAT WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 91 74 91 / 10 20 10 40
MCO 75 94 75 95 / 20 30 10 50
MLB 76 89 76 90 / 10 10 10 40
VRB 74 90 74 90 / 0 20 10 40
LEE 76 94 76 93 / 30 30 20 50
SFB 75 95 76 94 / 10 20 10 50
ORL 77 94 77 94 / 20 20 10 50
FPR 73 90 73 90 / 10 20 10 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...HALEY
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