161
FXUS62 KMLB 180540
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
140 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY,
LIMITING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH INTERIOR DUE TO GREATER
MOISTURE, BUT FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST AFTERNOONS, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105. HEAT STRESS CONTINUES
TO BE A CONCERN, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK AND MAJOR
HEATRISK FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
THRU TONIGHT...LATE MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH A PWAT OF 1.40". EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
PUSHING INLAND SEEN CLEARLY IN THE CU FIELD ON HIGH RES VIS SAT
IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY FORMED ALONG THE
BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTS
WITH LARGER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL
REMAIN DRY. A COLLISION WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR, WELL WEST OF ORLANDO, ROUGHLY
NEAR THE LAKE/SUMTER LINE THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH A QUIET OVERNIGHT.
WED-MON...MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THURSDAY, ERODES INTO FRIDAY, AND IS REPLACED BY A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINS GENERALLY IN
PLACE, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. POCKETS OF DRY AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, KEEPING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT, EXCEPT LOWER ALONG THE COAST.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS RAISES POPS TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN WIND FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH A
DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE PUSHING QUICKLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEAT
INDICES REACHING 100 TO 105. WHILE THESE HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ADEQUATE COOLING
AND HYDRATION WILL BE KEY IN AVOIDING ANY HEAT STRESS FOR RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ALIKE IF SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS.
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THIS WEEKEND DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON
AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
SIMILAR TAF TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS
FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
(VARIABLE AT TIMES) THRU 14Z GRADUALLY TURN MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SEA BREEZE FORMS 16Z-17Z (GUSTS AROUND 20 KT). ISO. SHRA/TSRA ARE
AGAIN FORECAST ALONG THE BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FROM SFB/MCO/ISM TO LEE AFTER 20-22Z. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND WIND GUSTS 30+ KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY WANES AFTER 03Z, MAINLY AT LEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 75 91 74 / 20 10 30 20
MCO 94 76 95 76 / 30 10 40 30
MLB 89 76 90 75 / 20 10 30 10
VRB 90 74 91 73 / 20 10 30 10
LEE 94 76 93 76 / 30 20 50 30
SFB 94 75 95 76 / 20 10 40 30
ORL 94 76 94 77 / 30 10 40 30
FPR 89 73 90 72 / 20 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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