678
FXUS62 KMLB 181757
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
157 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LIMITS RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH INTERIOR DUE TO GREATER MOISTURE, BUT FALL
ONCE AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST AFTERNOONS, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105. HEAT STRESS CONTINUES
TO BE A CONCERN, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK AND MAJOR
HEATRISK FOCUSED ACROSS THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, HELPING TO LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER, SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR COMBINED WITH A SEA BREEZE
COLLISION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WARRANTS A 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
WITH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
TODAY. IF ANY STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP, THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND
BRIEF DOWNPOURS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, DIMINISHING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105
POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS ALSO FORECAST, SO IF
SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS, BE SURE TO DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER AND HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING. THOSE WHO ARE
SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT OR WHO ARE NOT USED TO FLORIDA HEAT ARE AT
THE HIGHEST RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
THURSDAY-TUESDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ERODES INTO FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN US, BUT IS REPLACED BY A STRONGER
RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THURSDAY, LEADING TO LOWER RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT, 50 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY),
BUT THE EROSION OF THE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWS FOR A SURGE IN
MOISTURE, WITH A RETURN OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
ON FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY, THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA, AND
THEREFORE, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR POPS. TRENDED
POPS DOWNWARD FROM THE NBM BASED ON HOW THIS PAST WEEK HAS GONE, AS
THE SET-UP FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY SIMILAR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF POPS TREND LOWER AS TIME GOES ON. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE RELIEF ON THE HORIZON RELATIVE TO THE HEAT,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ALSO PERSISTS INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WITH MAJOR HEATRISK POSSIBLE NEAR THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA.
THIS MEANS THAT HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT OR WHO ARE NOT ACCLIMATED
TO FLORIDA HEAT. ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND COOLING WILL BE KEY IN
PREVENTING HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, SO BE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS REMAIN MUGGY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS
BECOME MORE ONSHORE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE SEA
BREEZE IS PUSHING INLAND AND WILL PRODUCE A SE WIND SHIFT AT
SFB/MCO BY 21Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ALONG THE BREEZE
BOUNDARY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (~30%) AT INLAND TERMINALS.
VCTS REMAINS IN THOSE TAFS WITH COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE TEMPOS AT THIS TIME. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND WIND GUSTS
30+ KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
AFTER 00Z WITH LINGERING SHRA/VCSH POSSIBLE AT LEE THRU 04Z. HAVE
ADDED VCTS TO MCO STARTING AT 22Z THU AND STORM COVERAGE LOOKS
HIGHER THAN TODAY SO FUTURE TAF PACKAGES WILL PROBABLY UPGRADE TO
A TEMPO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 91 74 90 / 0 40 30 50
MCO 76 94 75 93 / 20 50 30 60
MLB 76 90 75 89 / 10 20 10 30
VRB 75 90 73 90 / 10 20 10 30
LEE 76 93 75 92 / 20 60 30 60
SFB 76 94 75 93 / 10 50 30 50
ORL 76 93 76 93 / 10 50 30 60
FPR 73 90 72 90 / 10 20 10 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...KELLY
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