178
FXUS62 KMLB 181854
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
254 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY, THEN INCREASE
A BIT TO AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
IN PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105, AND MINOR TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
CURRENTLY...SOME STREAMERS (CONVERGENCE LINES) COMING OFF THE
BAHAMAS IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE THAN THE REST OF THE AREA
HAVE HELPED PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORM ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE IN MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IF IT WILL
SURVIVE ONCE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LAKE
BREEZE SHADOW (SUBSIDENCE ZONE).
REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WE
REMAIN IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF THE
ATLANTIC HIGH GRADUALLY LIFTS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTH FLORIDA,
SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FOR QUICKER INLAND
PROGRESSION, AND RESULTING IN A COLLISION ACROSS MARION, LAKE,
POLK, AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES IN THE LATE EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS OVERALL UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM VERY DRY AND
WARM AIR ALOFT, BUT STREAMERS, THE SEA BREEZE, AND STORM OUTFLOW
KICKING UP POCKETS OF HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST STORM STORM
CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IN THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE A HURDLE TO DEEP
CONVECTION, IT WILL ALSO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. ANY STORMS OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVING IF NOT NEARLY STATIONARY, AND TRAINING ALONG BOUNDARIES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, EITHER OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPE COULD HOLD OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM THE UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S, WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY-TUESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ERODES FOR A SPELL INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN US, BUT IS THEN REPLACED BY A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF LOCAL CONDITIONS, AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, TICKS RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES UP A BIT (20 TO 40 PERCENT, 50 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY), THEN THE EROSION OF THE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWS FOR A
SURGE IN MOISTURE, RETURNING 40 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE PENINSULA, DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES. NBM
HAS COME DOWN 10-20 PERCENT SINCE LAST NIGHT, WHICH DOESN'T
INSTILL MUCH CONFIDENCE, EITHER. MIXED IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE,
RESULTING IN DAILY 30 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE RELIEF ON THE HORIZON FROM THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE RETURNS, KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK ALSO PERSISTS INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH
MAJOR HEATRISK POSSIBLE NEAR THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA. THIS MEANS
THAT HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT OR WHO ARE NOT ACCLIMATED TO FLORIDA
HEAT. ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND COOLING WILL BE KEY IN PREVENTING
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, SO BE SURE TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT,
CONDITIONS REMAIN MUGGY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY GRADUALLY LIFTS TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KTS FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH
FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER NORTH. HIGHEST STORM CHANCES REMAIN
INLAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS 1-3 FEET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE SEA
BREEZE IS PUSHING INLAND AND WILL PRODUCE A SE WIND SHIFT AT
SFB/MCO BY 21Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ALONG THE BREEZE
BOUNDARY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (~30%) AT INLAND TERMINALS.
VCTS REMAINS IN THOSE TAFS WITH COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE TEMPOS AT THIS TIME. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND WIND GUSTS
30+ KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
AFTER 00Z WITH LINGERING SHRA/VCSH POSSIBLE AT LEE THRU 04Z. HAVE
ADDED VCTS TO MCO STARTING AT 22Z THU AND STORM COVERAGE LOOKS
HIGHER THAN TODAY SO FUTURE TAF PACKAGES WILL PROBABLY UPGRADE TO
A TEMPO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 91 74 90 / 0 40 30 50
MCO 76 94 75 93 / 20 50 30 60
MLB 76 90 75 89 / 10 20 10 30
VRB 75 90 73 90 / 10 20 10 30
LEE 76 93 75 92 / 20 60 30 60
SFB 76 94 75 93 / 10 50 30 50
ORL 76 93 76 93 / 10 50 30 60
FPR 73 90 72 90 / 10 20 10 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...KELLY
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