826
FXUS62 KMLB 190627
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
227 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
- INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY, STRONG STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
- HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 100S
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY LOOKS TO
GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF MORNING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE
TODAY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE, PRIMARILY FROM
DAYTONA BEACH SOUTHWESTWARD TO LAKE KISSIMMEE. THIS WILL BUILD HEAT
INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW/MID 100S (AS HIGH AS 106) BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOWER PW (1.4-1.7") WILL DEFINE A MOISTURE GRADIENT
FARTHER SOUTH, STRETCHING FROM MELBOURNE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE
TREASURE COAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO BREAK DOWN
AS THE BASE OF A 500MB TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
THESE DYNAMICS, COMBINED WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND MORE ACTIVE
EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES, WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 1-2 PM. COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN DRY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT RECEIVING SOME
RAINFALL TODAY AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE SPARKS EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO, WITH DCAPE 1000+ J/KG AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-6.5 DEGC/KM (ESPECIALLY
ORLANDO/TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD). THE MOST ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST TO SUNSET, LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DECAY THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S IN MOST SPOTS
AFTER 10 PM, SETTLING INTO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A SIMILAR FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS
HIGHER MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. WHILE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FOCUSED FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE NORTH AND WESTWARD, THERE IS STILL SOME
OPPORTUNITY (30-40% CHANCE) FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST TO
RECEIVE A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE FORMS AND SLOWLY
MOVES INLAND. THE EVENTUAL EAST-WEST COAST BREEZE COLLISION IS WHAT
WILL BOOST RAIN CHANCES OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS AFTER 4-5 PM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN, GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE MOST
ORGANIZED OF STORMS. A DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET CAN
BE ANTICIPATED WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH AS LATE AS 10-11 PM.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES 100-105 DEGREES. KEEP THIS IN MIND FOR ANY PLANS TO BE
OUTSIDE FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME, AS ADEQUATE HYDRATION AND COOLING
WILL BE IMPORTANT TO AVOID ANY HEAT STRESS OR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS INTRODUCED ON SATURDAY WHEN PW
FALL CLOSER TO 1.5". FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT AN OVERALL DRYING
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, SO IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS UPDATED FORECAST TEMPERED NBM RAIN CHANCES A
BIT, COMING IN AROUND 30-50 PERCENT AREAWIDE (LOWER NEAR THE COAST,
HIGHER INLAND). ALSO, PREDOMINANT SURFACE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A QUICKER INLAND PUSH OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL WORK TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES OVERALL,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. DUE TO THE LOWER
RAIN CHANCES, AFTERNOON HIGHS TICK BACK UP A DEGREE OR SO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW-MID 90S. HOWEVER, A REDUCTION IN MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE 100-103 RANGE.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS EACH DAY (10-15 MPH, GUSTING AROUND
20 MPH) WILL BECOME A MAIN FEATURE OF THE LATE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK
FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
TN/OH VALLEYS. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING PW
NEAR OR UNDER 1.5" (ESPECIALLY BEYOND MONDAY). THE NBM SEEMS TO
BE HOLDING ONTO ITS EXTENDED RANGE HIGH BIAS WITH REGARD TO RAIN
CHANCES, SO DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS WAS BLENDED IN TO FLATTEN
VALUES INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD,
SO LOCATIONS NEAR/WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ORLANDO/LEESBURG
(FAR INTERIOR) WILL BE BEST POSITIONED TO SEE RAIN, IF ANY AT
ALL. IF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER, IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE THESE 30-50 PERCENT VALUES LOWERED EVEN MORE.
THIS ALSO MEANS THAT DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ARE HERE TO
STAY, WITH THE SEA BREEZE AS THE LONE MECHANISM TO PROVIDING ANY
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO THIS LEVEL OF HEAT
AND THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTSIDE (1-2+ HOURS)
SHOULD BE SURE TO STAY WELL HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
THE A/C OR SHADE. OVERNIGHT LOWS RETREAT INTO THE 70S EACH NIGHT
AS WIND SPEEDS FALL TO 5 MPH OR LESS. IN SUMMARY, NEXT WEEK
APPEARS TO BRING CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW, TURNING ONSHORE (UP TO 15 KT) EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA BREEZE, CONTINUES. WINDS TURN PREDOMINANTLY ESE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FROM TIME TO TIME, THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. SEAS
STAY FAIRLY STEADY-STATE, AROUND 1-3 FEET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIMILAR
PATTERN TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TODAY. WHILE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS WELL AS ALONG SEA
BREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
PUSHES INLAND. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR DAB-TIX-MLB STARTING AT
1730Z, AND STARTING AT 22Z FOR MCO-SFB-ISM-LEE. ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO END AROUND 00-03Z, BECOMING MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO
5-10 KT BY MID MORNING, WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE ESE/SE IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE (WINDS INCREASING TO 12 KT AND
BECOMING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST). WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 74 90 74 / 50 30 50 20
MCO 93 75 93 74 / 50 40 60 30
MLB 89 75 90 75 / 30 10 40 20
VRB 90 73 91 74 / 30 10 30 10
LEE 92 76 92 74 / 60 30 60 30
SFB 94 75 93 75 / 50 30 60 30
ORL 93 75 93 75 / 50 40 70 30
FPR 90 72 90 73 / 30 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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