023  
FXUS62 KMLB 021056  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
656 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
- VERY HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GREATEST COVERAGE  
GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL  
CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING.  
 
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR MINOR  
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGH  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TAKES UP STATION ABOVE THE  
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA, SHUNTING THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL  
HIGH SOUTH AND EAST. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY  
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, PUSHING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA, WHICH  
BEGINS TO PILE AGAINST A WEAKENING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA  
(AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF THE YEAR),  
THOUGH SOME SLOTS OF "DRIER" AIR WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8" (NEAR  
NORMAL) REMAIN AS WE WAIT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NEARBY  
ATLANTIC WATERS TO FINALLY DEPART. BETWEEN THE HIGH MOISTURE AND  
TROUGH ALOFT, CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GET GOING FAIRLY  
EARLY, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS NOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, THEN  
QUICKLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE PUSHING NORTH AND INLAND,  
BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE  
VARIABLE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS EARLY MORNING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN  
THE NORTHEAST GULF, AS OUTFLOW COULD PUSH THE TIMELINE FOR STORMS  
ACROSS THE NORTH EARLIER. WHILE MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE  
ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WARMING IN THE  
MID- LEVELS, MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES, AND VERY LOW SHEAR WILL  
SUPPORT PRIMARILY PULSE LIGHTNING STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND  
GUSTS TO 50 MPH, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING,  
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SLOW/ERRATIC,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISION, LEADING TO A QUICK 1-3" OF  
RAINFALL RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS, AND MINOR  
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE HIGH  
MOISTURE AND ABUNDANCE OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, THERE IS ALSO  
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER, BUT  
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN  
THE U90S-L100S, AND MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK IMPACTS.  
 
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO PILE UP  
MOISTURE AGAINST THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NORTH  
FLORIDA. PWATS SURGE TO OVER 2.0" (AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH  
PERCENTILE) OVER THE STATE, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STAGNANT  
TROUGH ALOFT, WILL SUPPORT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTING STORMS.  
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH  
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR  
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO  
MODERATE (40%). REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT. MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO  
RECEIVE 1-4" OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD (SOME MUCH NEEDED),  
BUT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS MULTIPLE DAYS IN A  
ROW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.  
 
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LOWER THAN NORMAL  
DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. HIGH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS REDUCING THE  
EFFECT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER/LATER SEA BREEZES  
(IF THEY FORM AT ALL), REDUCING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THEM AS A  
FORCING MECHANISMS. IN ADDITION AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES  
BROADLY UNSTABLE, IT'LL BE EASIER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO  
DEVELOP IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE, WHILE THE  
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 80%) REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, MODEST CHANCES (20-40%) WILL CONTINUE IN THE OVERNIGHT  
AND MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST DECREASES BY  
SATURDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION OF THE LOW. LATEST  
GUIDANCE HAS HE MID- LEVEL TROUGH BECOME CUTOFF AS THE SURFACE LOW  
DEVELOPS, CAUSING THE LOW TO MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS. ENSEMBLES  
SHOW A SOMEWHAT BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER  
OF THE LOW, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIFFERENT DISTRIBUTIONS OF POPS  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST CLUSTER IS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF  
NEAR THE NATURE COAST, WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE UP  
OVER THE PENINSULA AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY HIGH FOR THE WHOLE  
AREA. THE OTHER CLUSTER IS NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF JACKSONVILLE  
OR SO, WITH DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO NORTH FLORIDA BUT HIGH  
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO GET PULLED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH  
WOULD RESULT IN VARYING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS  
FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FORECAST, HAVING THE LOW WANDER BETWEEN  
THESE TWO CLUSTERS IN SOME RUNS. ULTIMATELY RAINFALL LOOKS TO  
REMAIN EPISODIC, ALLOWING AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL TIME  
TO RECOVER AND KEEPING THE THREAT FOR FLOODING LIMITED TO SPOTS  
THAT GET REPEATED ROUNDS OVER MULTIPLE DAYS.  
 
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE  
FORECAST AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VERY  
HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS  
THE LOW AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER OR  
NEAR FLORIDA. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD  
WEAKEN OR USHER OFF THE LOW, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE  
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING BACK TOWARDS FLORIDA. WHILE THERE IS A  
BIT OF A DECREASE IN MOISTURE, PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS FOR PWATS  
AND SUBSEQUENTLY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AN  
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIES THE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES  
(RELATIVELY SPEAKING) THANKS TO MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUNLIGHT, BUT  
GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOATING AS WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY, MULTIPLE ROUNDS  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE A CONTINUOUS RISK FOR MARINERS  
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS FROM  
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA SHIFTING FLOW SW-  
SSW. WINDS BACK A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE SEA  
BREEZE, THOUGH HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN A WEAK/LATE  
DEVELOPMENT. SEAS 1-3 FT.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE WEEK AND INTO  
THE WEEKEND, WHICH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AND  
CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CURRENTLY THE GREATEST IMPACT  
FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS  
AND LIGHTNING STORMS, BUT DOES DECREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND AND  
SEAS FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY, THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR CAUTIONARY  
LEVELS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW WILL  
DEVELOP WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. THIS  
FLOW REGIME FAVORS A MORE ACTIVE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH  
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND  
PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN OFFSHORE  
INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INSERTED TEMPO TS GROUPS FOR THIS PACKAGE  
AND HOLD ONTO VCSH OVERNIGHT FOR MANY SITES AS MOIST SW FLOW WILL  
BRING SHRA ONSHORE FROM THE GULF.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 89 74 88 73 / 60 50 80 40  
MCO 89 75 87 74 / 60 50 80 40  
MLB 88 75 88 74 / 70 60 80 40  
VRB 89 72 89 72 / 70 50 80 40  
LEE 87 75 87 74 / 60 50 80 30  
SFB 90 75 88 74 / 60 50 80 40  
ORL 89 75 88 74 / 60 50 80 40  
FPR 89 73 88 73 / 70 50 80 40  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...HALEY  
AVIATION...KELLY  
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