072  
FXUS62 KMLB 021901 CCA  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
301 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
- VERY HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GREATEST COVERAGE  
GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL  
CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING.  
 
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR MINOR  
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGH  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
CURRENT-TONIGHT... DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT ~2.05") HAS SUPPORTED  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS  
AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, BUT WARM  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (~ -7C) AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE  
GENERALLY LIMITED ORGANIZED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. A  
WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED FROM BREVARD COUNTY  
SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING INLAND WITH THE SUPPORT OF OUTFLOW FROM  
PRIOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE HIGH COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS (~70%) ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OUTFLOW AND  
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE  
LIGHTNING STRIKES, CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK, CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF FUNNEL  
CLOUD WHERE MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES MEET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (10-20%). MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
THURSDAY-SATURDAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAKENING  
FRONT WILL KEEP A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK.  
NHC IS CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP  
ALONG THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE  
(40%) FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM BY THE  
WEEKEND OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, MOISTURE  
IN PLACE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF  
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN  
1-3" THOUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MORE LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS REMAIN  
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL IN  
SHORTER TIME INTERVALS. GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS HOLD A 60-80% CHANCE  
OF RAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHILE THE GREATEST FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION  
IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, CANNOT RULE  
OUT PERIODS OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN STRONG STORMS  
DECREASES INTO LATE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT AND BUILDING  
CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING. PRIMARY  
STORM HAZARDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDE MINOR FLOODING OF  
URBAN OR LOW LYING AREAS, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.  
 
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO HIGH  
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, HIGH MOISTURE WILL HOLD MUGGY  
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S AND  
NEARING 100 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID  
70S EACH MORNING.  
 
SUNDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS)...HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, BUT GENERALLY  
EXPECT VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO  
MONDAY AS THE LOW AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MEANDER  
OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT  
SHOULD WEAKEN OR USHER OFF THE LOW, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE  
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING BACK TOWARDS FLORIDA. WHILE THERE IS A BIT  
OF A DECREASE IN MOISTURE, PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS FOR PWATS AND  
SUBSEQUENTLY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AN  
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIES THE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES  
(RELATIVELY SPEAKING) THANKS TO MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUNLIGHT, BUT  
GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
MODIFIED PREVIOUS...  
 
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOATING AS WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY, MULTIPLE ROUNDS  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE A CONTINUOUS RISK FOR MARINERS  
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS FROM  
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA SHIFTING FLOW SW-SSW.  
WINDS BACK A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE,  
THOUGH HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN A WEAK/LATE DEVELOPMENT.  
SEAS 1-3 FT.  
 
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR  
A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS  
CURRENTLY A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL  
DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THE GREATEST IMPACT REMAINS HIGH  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS  
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY,  
THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVELS  
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
CONTINUED VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SWRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE  
WHICH WILL PIN THE ECSB ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING. THE WCSB WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AND WE WILL SEE  
EARLIER CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ALREADY  
EARLY INITIATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST TAF  
SITES. STORMS EXPECTED TO STACK UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING SSW/SW STORM  
STEERING. HANDLING TAFS WITH "VICINITY" WORDING AND TEMPO GROUPS  
AS APPLICABLE. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY MID-LATE EVENING AS IT  
PUSHES OFF OF THE COAST AND/OR DISSIPATES. LIGHT S/SSW SURFACE  
WINDS TONIGHT AND A REPEAT ON THU, THOUGH IT APPEARS THE ECSB WILL  
BE UNABLE TO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW REMAINS STOUT. LIKELY  
EARLY INITIATION AGAIN THU AS ACTIVITY ACROSS WCFL DEVELOPS AND  
PUSHES QUICKLY INTO ECFL DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 74 88 73 87 / 50 80 40 70  
MCO 75 86 74 88 / 50 80 40 70  
MLB 75 88 74 88 / 60 80 50 70  
VRB 70 88 70 88 / 60 80 50 70  
LEE 75 86 75 87 / 50 80 40 70  
SFB 75 88 74 88 / 50 80 40 70  
ORL 75 87 75 88 / 50 80 40 70  
FPR 71 88 71 87 / 60 80 50 70  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...LAW  
AVIATION...SEDLOCK  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab FL Page
Main Text Page