465
FXUS62 KMLB 030510
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
110 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
- VERY HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GREATEST COVERAGE
GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING.
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR MINOR
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT ~2.05") HAS SUPPORTED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (~ -7C) AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
GENERALLY LIMITED ORGANIZED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY. A
WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED FROM BREVARD COUNTY
SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING INLAND WITH THE SUPPORT OF OUTFLOW FROM
PRIOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE HIGH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS (~70%) ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OUTFLOW AND
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE
LIGHTNING STRIKES, CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK, CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF FUNNEL
CLOUD WHERE MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES MEET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (10-20%). MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT WILL KEEP A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
NHC IS CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
(40%) FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM BY THE
WEEKEND OR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, MOISTURE
IN PLACE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
1-3" THOUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MORE LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL IN
SHORTER TIME INTERVALS. GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS HOLD A 60-80% CHANCE
OF RAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHILE THE GREATEST FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, CANNOT RULE
OUT PERIODS OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN STRONG STORMS
DECREASES INTO LATE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT AND BUILDING
CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME HEATING. PRIMARY
STORM HAZARDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN OR LOW LYING AREAS, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, HIGH MOISTURE WILL HOLD MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S AND
NEARING 100 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID
70S EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS)...HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MEANDER
OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD WEAKEN OR USHER OFF THE LOW, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING BACK TOWARDS FLORIDA. WHILE THERE IS A BIT
OF A DECREASE IN MOISTURE, PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS FOR PWATS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AN
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIES THE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
(RELATIVELY SPEAKING) THANKS TO MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUNLIGHT, BUT
GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
MODIFIED PREVIOUS...
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOATING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY, MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE A CONTINUOUS RISK FOR MARINERS
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA SHIFTING FLOW SW-SSW.
WINDS BACK A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE,
THOUGH HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN A WEAK/LATE DEVELOPMENT.
SEAS 1-3 FT.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THE GREATEST IMPACT REMAINS HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY,
THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVELS
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
AND STORM COVERAGE, PARTICULARLY IN THE DAYTIME/EVENING HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR OCNL PERIODS
OF MVFR. TIMING OF STORMS IS DIFFICULT, BUT TEMPOS WERE ADDED
PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAMES TO BEST
REFLECT CURRENT GUIDANCE. S/SW WINDS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON, ESP COASTAL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 73 87 73 / 80 50 80 40
MCO 88 75 87 74 / 80 50 80 50
MLB 88 73 87 74 / 80 70 80 50
VRB 88 70 88 70 / 80 70 80 50
LEE 87 75 87 75 / 80 50 80 40
SFB 89 75 88 74 / 80 50 80 40
ORL 88 75 88 75 / 80 50 80 50
FPR 88 71 87 71 / 80 60 80 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...HEIL
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